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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
18%
Tusk
Tusk
Kingrd · 10 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Kingrd · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 7 games
29%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
FCR · 6 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 6 games
83%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Costabile · 6 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
4nalog · 6 games
83%

BOOM Esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 7 games
43%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Xepher · 7 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Xepher · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 5 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Natsumi · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
234 picks · 278 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
232 picks · 109 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 271 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
199 picks · 416 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
199 picks · 427 bans
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
196 picks · 263 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
177 picks · 277 bans
47%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
175 picks · 175 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:23
Keyd Stars 45%BOOM Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 53:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosFCR
65% · 23 games52% · 36 games
LunaPakazs
Luna
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCostabile
57% · 59 games51% · 75 games
TidehunterSacred
Tidehunter
Puck
Puck4nalog
51% · 103 games38% · 88 games
PhoenixMjz
Phoenix
Earthshaker
EarthshakerKingrd
47% · 63 games51% · 129 games
TuskMatthew
Tusk
Pugna
PugnaKJ
51% · 80 games
Game 2prediction missed41:22
Keyd Stars 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 56:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCostabile
54% · 60 games50% · 31 game
LunaPakazs
Luna
Zeus
Zeus4nalog
53% · 41 game44% · 60 games
TidehunterSacred
Tidehunter
Dazzle
DazzleFCR
47% · 24 games57% · 189 games
TuskMatthew
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKingrd
49% · 190 games49% · 55 games
PugnaMjz
Pugna
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKJ
31% · 20 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 66%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2