ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
Tusk
Kingrd · 10 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 7 games
Brewmastersignature
FCR · 6 games
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 6 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Costabile · 6 games
Primal Beastsignature
4nalog · 6 games
BOOM Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 7 games
Techiesoften banned
Xepher · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Xepher · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Natsumi · 5 games
Disruptor
xNova · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
234 picks · 278 bans
Dark Willow
232 picks · 109 bans
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
199 picks · 416 bans
Treant Protector
199 picks · 427 bans
Phoenix
196 picks · 263 bans
Earth Spirit
177 picks · 277 bans
Earthshaker
175 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:23
Keyd Stars 45%BOOM Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 53:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosFCR
LunaPakazs
Chaos KnightCostabile
TidehunterSacred
Puck4nalog
PhoenixMjz
EarthshakerKingrd
TuskMatthew
PugnaKJ
Game 2prediction missed41:22
Keyd Stars 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 56:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightCostabile
LunaPakazs
Zeus4nalog
TidehunterSacred
DazzleFCR
TuskMatthew
ClockwerkKingrd
PugnaMjz
Ancient ApparitionKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 66%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2