DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Meant 2 Be
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 1 game
Leshrac
bgod · 1 game
Techies
bgod · 1 game
Troll Warlord
Double King · 1 game
Wildcard Gaming
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 1 game
Lion
Bignum · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
RCY · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
RCY · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
411 picks · 534 bans
Muerta
403 picks · 332 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 386 bans
Lion
352 picks · 174 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
347 picks · 430 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 787 bans
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:38
Meant 2 Be 35%Wildcard Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingDouble King
Dragon KnightYamSun
Leshracbgod
LycanFayde
51% · 87 games
Storm SpiritRCY
56% · 145 games
Shadow DemonSpeeed
44% · 90 games
Dark WillowBignum
Game 2prediction missed41:30
Meant 2 Be 36%Wildcard Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Meant 2 Be in 46:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreDouble King
PangolierRCY
Hoodwinkbgod
BloodseekerYamSun
51% · 55 games
MagnusFayde
54% · 144 games
BatriderSpeeed
43% · 106 games
PhoenixBignum
Game 3prediction correct39:39
Meant 2 Be 36%Wildcard Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 58:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerDouble King
LinaRCY
Marcibgod
GyrocopterYamSun
54% · 27 games
EnigmaFayde
37% · 102 games
PhoenixSpeeed
47% · 83 games
ClockwerkBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 76%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3