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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Meant 2 Beloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Meant 2 Be

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 1 game
100%
Leshrac
Leshrac
bgod · 1 game
100%
Techies
Techies
bgod · 1 game
100%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlord
Double King · 1 game
100%

Wildcard Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 1 game
100%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 1 game
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
RCY · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
RCY · 1 game
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 534 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
403 picks · 332 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 386 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
352 picks · 174 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 581 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
347 picks · 430 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 787 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 486 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:38
Meant 2 Be 35%Wildcard Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingDouble King
51% · 324 games46% · 143 games
Dragon KnightYamSun
Dragon Knight
Leshrac
Leshracbgod
50% · 155 games50% · 14 games
LycanFayde
Lycan
51% · 87 games
Storm SpiritRCY
Storm Spirit
56% · 145 games
Shadow DemonSpeeed
Shadow Demon
44% · 90 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed41:30
Meant 2 Be 36%Wildcard Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Meant 2 Be in 46:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreDouble King
54% · 41 game48% · 113 games
PangolierRCY
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkbgod
50% · 386 games38% · 9 games
BloodseekerYamSun
Bloodseeker
51% · 55 games
MagnusFayde
Magnus
54% · 144 games
BatriderSpeeed
Batrider
43% · 106 games
PhoenixBignum
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct39:39
Meant 2 Be 36%Wildcard Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 58:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDouble King
56% · 135 games50% · 22 games
LinaRCY
Lina
Marci
Marcibgod
51% · 166 games45% · 67 games
GyrocopterYamSun
Gyrocopter
54% · 27 games
EnigmaFayde
Enigma
37% · 102 games
PhoenixSpeeed
Phoenix
47% · 83 games
ClockwerkBignum
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 76%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3