European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 20 games
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 19 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 17 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 17 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 16 games
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 12 games
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 21 game
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 13 games
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
Puckoften banned
ряф^^ · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
458 picks · 199 bans
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 672 bans
Batrider
442 picks · 838 bans
Tiny
427 picks · 591 bans
Rubick
410 picks · 179 bans
Mars
388 picks · 625 bans
Pangolier
388 picks · 689 bans
Techies
385 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 41%
Hero pool strength60% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:5
MOUZ 75%SIBE Team 25%
The model gave 75% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 21:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterUlnit
Lunaselfhate
ViperForce
Morphlingряф^^
Keeper of the LightSupream^
Doomsunset
TinyNARMAN
ClockwerkSOhY
Crystal Maidenbengan
Game 2prediction correct31:8
MOUZ 75%SIBE Team 25%
The model gave 75% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 20:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistUlnit
Morphlingselfhate
Keeper of the LightSupream^
Rubicksunset
RazorForce
GyrocopterSOhY
Shadow Demonbengan
Tuskряф^^
EarthshakerNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 86%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2