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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 19 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 16 games
63%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
46%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 12 games
58%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 21 game
24%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 13 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 11 games
27%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ряф^^ · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
458 picks · 199 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 672 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 838 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 591 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 179 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 625 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 689 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 298 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 41%
Hero pool strength60% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:5
MOUZ 75%SIBE Team 25%
The model gave 75% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 21:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
62% · 159 games47% · 170 games
Lunaselfhate
Luna
Viper
ViperForce
50% · 28 games44% · 212 games
Morphlingряф^^
Morphling
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSupream^
55% · 168 games47% · 240 games
Doomsunset
Doom
Tiny
TinyNARMAN
47% · 171 game44% · 118 games
ClockwerkSOhY
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenbengan
58% · 214 games
Game 2prediction correct31:8
MOUZ 75%SIBE Team 25%
The model gave 75% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 20:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
57% · 124 games43% · 206 games
Morphlingselfhate
Morphling
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSupream^
57% · 182 games43% · 309 games
Rubicksunset
Rubick
Razor
RazorForce
48% · 146 games46% · 151 game
GyrocopterSOhY
Gyrocopter
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonbengan
50% · 221 game49% · 89 games
Tuskряф^^
Tusk
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNARMAN
61% · 82 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 86%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2