DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Slardarsignature
SSS · 33 games
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 26 games
Kezsignature
Satanic · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 22 games
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 18 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
9Class · 18 games
PlayTime
Tusk
DJ · 15 games
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 11 games
Hoodwink
Scofield · 9 games
Kezoften banned
Wits · 9 games
Storm Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 8 games
Vipersignature
Armel · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
540 picks · 331 bans
Phoenix
503 picks · 590 bans
Tiny
447 picks · 370 bans
Rubick
406 picks · 220 bans
Jakiro
393 picks · 286 bans
Puck
343 picks · 881 bans
Tusk
343 picks · 310 bans
Beastmaster
338 picks · 853 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:47
PARIVISION 76%PlayTime 24%
The model gave 76% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PlayTime in 50:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerSatanic
PangolierDarkMago
PuckNo[o]ne
DoomWits
SlardarNoticed
AxeFrank
Nyx Assassin9Class
EnchantressElmisho
TechiesDukalis
WindrangerScofield
Game 2prediction correct27:14
PARIVISION 79%PlayTime 21%
The model gave 79% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinySatanic
PangolierDarkMago
DawnbreakerNoticed
AlchemistWits
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
AxeFrank
Keeper of the Light9Class
PhoenixElmisho
Winter WyvernDukalis
Skywrath MageScofield
Game 3prediction missed17:33
PARIVISION 77%PlayTime 23%
The model gave 77% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PlayTime in 40:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidSatanic
NecrophosWits
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
KunkkaDarkMago
DawnbreakerNoticed
BeastmasterFrank
Winter WyvernDukalis
EnchantressElmisho
Clockwerk9Class
Nyx AssassinScofield
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 91%
Series resultPlayTime 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3