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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PlayTimewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 33 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 26 games
65%
Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 24 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 18 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
9Class · 18 games
67%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 9 games
56%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Wits · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 8 games
63%
Viper
Vipersignature
Armel · 8 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
540 picks · 331 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
503 picks · 590 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 370 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
406 picks · 220 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
393 picks · 286 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 881 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
343 picks · 310 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
338 picks · 853 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:47
PARIVISION 76%PlayTime 24%
The model gave 76% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PlayTime in 50:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSatanic
46% · 42 games45% · 257 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
51% · 379 games55% · 135 games
DoomWits
Doom
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
57% · 318 games52% · 174 games
AxeFrank
Axe
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
51% · 56 games45% · 137 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesDukalis
44% · 108 games51% · 200 games
WindrangerScofield
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct27:14
PARIVISION 79%PlayTime 21%
The model gave 79% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySatanic
54% · 333 games44% · 308 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNoticed
47% · 136 games51% · 74 games
AlchemistWits
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
54% · 333 games48% · 213 games
AxeFrank
Axe
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
64% · 90 games44% · 257 games
PhoenixElmisho
Phoenix
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDukalis
56% · 49 games37% · 89 games
Skywrath MageScofield
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction missed17:33
PARIVISION 77%PlayTime 23%
The model gave 77% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PlayTime in 40:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidSatanic
55% · 28 games46% · 12 games
NecrophosWits
Necrophos
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
47% · 228 games48% · 95 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNoticed
49% · 116 games51% · 199 games
BeastmasterFrank
Beastmaster
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDukalis
48% · 20 games57% · 127 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Clockwerk
Clockwerk9Class
47% · 96 games50% · 55 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 91%
Series resultPlayTime 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3