BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Tinysignature
QBFY · 32 games
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 15 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 15 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 14 games
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 13 games
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
Muertasignature
bottega · 16 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 694 bans
Shadow Shaman
280 picks · 179 bans
Disruptor
256 picks · 225 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 653 bans
Tusk
249 picks · 253 bans
Dark Willow
246 picks · 105 bans
Marci
245 picks · 604 bans
Nature's Prophet
242 picks · 547 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Passion UA
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:21
Passion UA 32%Yellow Submarine 68%
The model gave 68% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 27:58.
Game 2prediction missed44:26
Passion UA 32%Yellow Submarine 68%
The model gave 68% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Passion UA in 1:09:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 68%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2