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BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 32 games
69%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 15 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 15 games
87%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 14 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 13 games
69%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 20 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 17 games
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
63%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 16 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
289 picks · 694 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
280 picks · 179 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
256 picks · 225 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 653 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
249 picks · 253 bans
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
246 picks · 105 bans
48%
Marci
Marci
245 picks · 604 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
242 picks · 547 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Passion UA
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:21
Passion UA 32%Yellow Submarine 68%
The model gave 68% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 27:58.
Game 2prediction missed44:26
Passion UA 32%Yellow Submarine 68%
The model gave 68% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Passion UA in 1:09:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 68%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2