ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OEOQ Enjoyersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 42 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 34 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 33 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 30 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 30 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 29 games
Tusk
Ekki · 29 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 28 games
OQ Enjoyers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
556 picks · 737 bans
Tusk
495 picks · 353 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 646 bans
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 545 bans
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 633 bans
Gyrocopter
365 picks · 548 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 169 bans
Snapfire
356 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct72:27
Pipsqueak+4 58%OQ Enjoyers 42%
The model gave 58% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 59:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendNande
AlchemistWoE
Void SpiritCopy
Queen of PainStojkov
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
DawnbreakerChodΣX
WeaverEkki
TuskKyzko
Treant Protectoraik
BaneFishman
Game 2prediction correct30:16
Pipsqueak+4 57%OQ Enjoyers 43%
The model gave 57% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 28:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzNande
InvokerStojkov
PuckCopy
Shadow FiendWoE
TidehunterPalantimos
Primal BeastChodΣX
JakiroEkki
MiranaFishman
Omniknightaik
TuskKyzko
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 64%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2