Sand King Gomez vs 4 amigos — prediction PW2S1ЗК · Dota 2

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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Sand King Gomezloss 0:2

series probability

47%53%

probability at match start · final 0:2

4A4 amigoswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sand King Gomez

Shadow Demonoften banned

N1NE · 4 games

50%

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

H1j4ck · 3 games

33%

Crystal Maiden

Aretes · 3 games

67%

Morphlingoften banned

DaaD- · 3 games

Tusk

CHAAANNN · 3 games

33%

Brewmasteroften banned

H1j4ck · 2 games

Dark Willow

N1NE · 2 games

50%

Grimstrokeoften banned

CHAAANNN · 2 games

4 amigos

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Centaur Warrunner

427 picks · 697 bans

56%

Techies

405 picks · 324 bans

50%

Mars

404 picks · 656 bans

54%

Lion

394 picks · 361 bans

53%

Batrider

386 picks · 852 bans

56%

Tiny

385 picks · 486 bans

55%

Vengeful Spirit

361 picks · 359 bans

51%

Crystal Maiden

356 picks · 160 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%

Hero pool strength52% 4 amigos

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total53% 4 amigos

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct5:23

Sand King Gomez 49%4 amigos 51%

The model gave 51% on 4 amigos — the game was taken by 4 amigos in 27:43.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo