PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4A4 amigoswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Shadow Demonoften banned
N1NE · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
Tusk
CHAAANNN · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Dark Willow
N1NE · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
4 amigos
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 697 bans
Techies
405 picks · 324 bans
Mars
404 picks · 656 bans
Lion
394 picks · 361 bans
Batrider
386 picks · 852 bans
Tiny
385 picks · 486 bans
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
Crystal Maiden
356 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% 4 amigos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% 4 amigos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:23
Sand King Gomez 49%4 amigos 51%
The model gave 51% on 4 amigos — the game was taken by 4 amigos in 27:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaDaaD-
PuckRCY
KunkkaÑengoflow KELOKE
LifestealerDouble King
MiranaN1NE
Death Prophetmonkeys-forever
Crystal MaidenAretes
Chenalbinozebra
Game 2prediction correct23:43
Sand King Gomez 48%4 amigos 52%
The model gave 52% on 4 amigos — the game was taken by 4 amigos in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaDaaD-
Templar AssassinRCY
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
SvenDouble King
LeshracN1NE
Batridermonkeys-forever
Crystal MaidenAretes
Miranaalbinozebra
Model check result
Model favorite4 amigos · 53%
Series result4 amigos 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2