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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tiny
Tiny
Xepher · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 13 games
54%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 13 games
46%
Bane
Bane
Hyde · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
60%
Medusa
Medusasignature
23savage · 10 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hyde · 10 games
50%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 17 games
35%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
36%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 13 games
54%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
69%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
689 picks · 491 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
484 picks · 986 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
397 picks · 502 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
381 picks · 194 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
363 picks · 675 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
331 picks · 547 bans
48%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
313 picks · 287 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
304 picks · 633 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:24
Talon Esports 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker23savage
54% · 131 game55% · 83 games
Nature's ProphetMATUMBAMAN
Nature's Prophet
Zeus
ZeusMikoto
49% · 156 games53% · 70 games
Lycanzai
Lycan
Razor
Razorkpii
48% · 220 games50% · 246 games
PuckmiCKe
Puck
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXepher
52% · 171 game47% · 72 games
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Phoenix
Dazzle
DazzleHyde
44% · 94 games48% · 301 game
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct26:13
Talon Esports 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancer23savage
54% · 79 games46% · 151 game
Templar AssassinMATUMBAMAN
Templar Assassin
Visage
Visagekpii
66% · 86 games47% · 148 games
Razorzai
Razor
Puck
PuckMikoto
45% · 397 games40% · 172 games
Void SpiritmiCKe
Void Spirit
Chen
ChenHyde
60% · 60 games44% · 68 games
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorXepher
53% · 138 games48% · 221 game
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2