PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tiny
Xepher · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 13 games
Bane
Hyde · 12 games
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
Medusasignature
23savage · 10 games
Snapfire
Hyde · 10 games
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 17 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 13 games
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
689 picks · 491 bans
Puck
484 picks · 986 bans
Dawnbreaker
397 picks · 502 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 194 bans
Marci
363 picks · 675 bans
Mars
331 picks · 547 bans
Winter Wyvern
313 picks · 287 bans
Monkey King
304 picks · 633 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:24
Talon Esports 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker23savage
Nature's ProphetMATUMBAMAN
ZeusMikoto
Lycanzai
Razorkpii
PuckmiCKe
Shadow ShamanXepher
PhoenixiNSaNiA
DazzleHyde
TinyBoxi
Game 2prediction correct26:13
Talon Esports 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer23savage
Templar AssassinMATUMBAMAN
Visagekpii
Razorzai
PuckMikoto
Void SpiritmiCKe
ChenHyde
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Treant ProtectorXepher
TinyBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2