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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9Pandaswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Doom
Doomsignature
Xxs · 25 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 24 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 22 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 20 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
65%

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 47 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 38 games
47%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 26 games
62%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 25 games
72%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 24 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 21 game
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
742 picks · 595 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
609 picks · 529 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
553 picks · 1095 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1310 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
487 picks · 547 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
468 picks · 949 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
461 picks · 1134 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
451 picks · 642 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:26
Team Aster 47%9Pandas 53%
The model gave 53% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
56% · 386 games53% · 126 games
Faceless VoidRAMZES666
Faceless Void
Slark
SlarkMonet
52% · 195 games40% · 340 games
Snapfirekiyotaka
Snapfire
Leshrac
LeshracSumaiL
59% · 262 games46% · 286 games
BatriderAntares
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressBoBoKa
48% · 293 games40% · 141 game
MagnusMieRo
Magnus
Venomancer
VenomancerFantasy
57% · 119 games49% · 362 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Game 2prediction correct14:35
Team Aster 46%9Pandas 54%
The model gave 54% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMonet
53% · 193 games52% · 280 games
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
48% · 345 games50% · 125 games
Linakiyotaka
Lina
Morphling
MorphlingSumaiL
55% · 233 games42% · 303 games
BatriderAntares
Batrider
Venomancer
VenomancerBoBoKa
59% · 101 game52% · 105 games
Dark SeerMieRo
Dark Seer
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
47% · 287 games44% · 346 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Game 3prediction correct6:33
Team Aster 47%9Pandas 53%
The model gave 53% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 36:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMonet
52% · 75 games48% · 109 games
Sniperkiyotaka
Sniper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
56% · 415 games45% · 160 games
BloodseekerRAMZES666
Bloodseeker
Lina
LinaSumaiL
53% · 197 games42% · 154 games
TimbersawMieRo
Timbersaw
Techies
TechiesBoBoKa
52% · 249 games47% · 497 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFantasy
60% · 105 games45% · 121 game
PugnaSolo
Pugna
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 58%
Series result9Pandas 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3