DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Doomsignature
Xxs · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 22 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 22 games
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
9Pandas
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 47 games
Rubick
Antares · 38 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 26 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 25 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 24 games
Disruptor
Solo · 21 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
742 picks · 595 bans
Disruptor
609 picks · 529 bans
Doom
553 picks · 1095 bans
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1310 bans
Techies
487 picks · 547 bans
Pangolier
468 picks · 949 bans
Ember Spirit
461 picks · 1134 bans
Enchantress
451 picks · 642 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:26
Team Aster 47%9Pandas 53%
The model gave 53% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterXxs
Faceless VoidRAMZES666
SlarkMonet
Snapfirekiyotaka
LeshracSumaiL
BatriderAntares
EnchantressBoBoKa
MagnusMieRo
VenomancerFantasy
UndyingSolo
Game 2prediction correct14:35
Team Aster 46%9Pandas 54%
The model gave 54% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidMonet
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
BeastmasterXxs
Linakiyotaka
MorphlingSumaiL
BatriderAntares
VenomancerBoBoKa
Dark SeerMieRo
DisruptorFantasy
UndyingSolo
Game 3prediction correct6:33
Team Aster 47%9Pandas 53%
The model gave 53% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 36:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautMonet
Sniperkiyotaka
BeastmasterXxs
BloodseekerRAMZES666
LinaSumaiL
TimbersawMieRo
TechiesBoBoKa
RubickAntares
Shadow DemonFantasy
PugnaSolo
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 58%
Series result9Pandas 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3