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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 37 games
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 31 game
68%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 29 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 28 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SumaiL · 27 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Fantasy · 23 games
43%

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 34 games
35%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 33 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 30 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 26 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 26 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Chris Luck · 25 games
64%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Panda · 25 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
646 picks · 690 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
521 picks · 338 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
439 picks · 935 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
433 picks · 926 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 856 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
391 picks · 873 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
383 picks · 390 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
382 picks · 990 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total56% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:19
Team Aster 53%Evil Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerSumaiL
43% · 99 games59% · 87 games
EnigmaWisper
Enigma
Monkey King
Monkey KingMonet
52% · 189 games41% · 136 games
BloodseekerPakazs
Bloodseeker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXxs
60% · 120 games50% · 133 games
Primal BeastChris Luck
Primal Beast
Lion
LionKaka
52% · 66 games39% · 11 games
Ancient ApparitionPanda
Ancient Apparition
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFantasy
51% · 101 game46% · 208 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Team Aster 54%Evil Geniuses 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMonet
52% · 135 games49% · 146 games
JuggernautPakazs
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
49% · 271 game51% · 133 games
LycanWisper
Lycan
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXxs
59% · 98 games43% · 174 games
WindrangerChris Luck
Windranger
Batrider
BatriderKaka
52% · 236 games53% · 346 games
ClockwerkMatthew
Clockwerk
Snapfire
SnapfireFantasy
43% · 289 games49% · 230 games
EnigmaPanda
Enigma
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 56%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2