Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Rubick
Fantasy · 37 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 31 game
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 29 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
Snapfire
SumaiL · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
Disruptoroften banned
Fantasy · 23 games
Evil Geniuses
Rubick
Matthew · 34 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 33 games
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 30 games
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 28 games
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 26 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 26 games
Batridersignature
Chris Luck · 25 games
Undyingoften banned
Panda · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
646 picks · 690 bans
Rubick
521 picks · 338 bans
Doom
439 picks · 935 bans
Batrider
433 picks · 926 bans
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 856 bans
Storm Spirit
391 picks · 873 bans
Spirit Breaker
383 picks · 390 bans
Beastmaster
382 picks · 990 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total56% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:19
Team Aster 53%Evil Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerSumaiL
EnigmaWisper
Monkey KingMonet
BloodseekerPakazs
Dark SeerXxs
Primal BeastChris Luck
LionKaka
Ancient ApparitionPanda
Shadow DemonFantasy
SnapfireMatthew
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Team Aster 54%Evil Geniuses 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaMonet
JuggernautPakazs
Ember SpiritSumaiL
LycanWisper
Dark SeerXxs
WindrangerChris Luck
BatriderKaka
ClockwerkMatthew
SnapfireFantasy
EnigmaPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 56%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2