Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 26 games
Linaoften banned
kiyotaka · 23 games
Bane
Kaori · 21 game
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 18 games
Lunasignature
lightless · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 16 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Shisui · 15 games
V-Gaming
Linasignature
hAze · 36 games
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 31 game
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 26 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 25 games
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 21 game
Weaversignature
ArrOw · 21 game
Marssignature
laise · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
371 picks · 545 bans
Bane
343 picks · 260 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 206 bans
Weaver
323 picks · 711 bans
Monkey King
253 picks · 750 bans
Tidehunter
244 picks · 384 bans
Disruptor
240 picks · 152 bans
Io
234 picks · 560 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% V-Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total77% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:47
Team Empire 32%V-Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 1:01:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseekerlightless
PuckhAze
DoomIceberg
RazorTA2000
Outworld DestroyerGhostik
Night Stalkerlaise
Clockwerk[T]SA
MiranaArrOw
GrimstrokeKaori
Baneantoha
Game 2prediction missed29:24
Team Empire 34%V-Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Team Empire in 28:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassinlightless
Queen of PainhAze
PuckIceberg
Wraith KingTA2000
SlardarGhostik
Night Stalkerlaise
WeaverKaori
SnapfireArrOw
Grimstroke[T]SA
Disruptorantoha
Game 3prediction correct22:38
Team Empire 33%V-Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 43:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelightless
RazorTA2000
InvokerIceberg
Queen of PainhAze
TimbersawGhostik
Sand Kinglaise
DisruptorKaori
WeaverArrOw
Spirit Breaker[T]SA
Treant Protectorantoha
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 77%
Series resultV-Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3