ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 28 games
Tusksignature
Boxi · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 16 games
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 13 games
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 12 games
9Pandas
Rubick
Antares · 34 games
Techiessignature
Antares · 34 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
Disruptor
Solo · 19 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
Dragon Knightsignature
RAMZES666 · 16 games
Tinysignature
Antares · 16 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1000 picks · 703 bans
Tiny
636 picks · 462 bans
Nature's Prophet
574 picks · 925 bans
Disruptor
562 picks · 415 bans
Tusk
530 picks · 407 bans
Snapfire
526 picks · 369 bans
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1215 bans
Clockwerk
499 picks · 385 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 60%
Hero pool strength62% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:36
Team Liquid 56%9Pandas 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 41:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinNisha
AlchemistRAMZES666
Miranazai
Dark SeerMieRo
PudgemiCKe
Rikikiyotaka
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
TechiesAntares
Nyx AssassinBoxi
EnchantressRodjER
Game 2prediction correct44:15
Team Liquid 58%9Pandas 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenmiCKe
MedusaRAMZES666
Doomzai
BeastmasterMieRo
Storm SpiritNisha
EnchantressAntares
PugnaBoxi
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
OracleiNSaNiA
DisruptorRodjER
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2