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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
9Pandasloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 28 games
86%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 25 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 16 games
88%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 13 games
77%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 12 games
75%

9Pandas

Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 34 games
50%
Techies
Techiessignature
Antares · 34 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 19 games
58%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
RAMZES666 · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Antares · 16 games
63%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1000 picks · 703 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
636 picks · 462 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
574 picks · 925 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
562 picks · 415 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
530 picks · 407 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 369 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1215 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
499 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 60%
Hero pool strength62% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:36
Team Liquid 56%9Pandas 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 41:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNisha
54% · 94 games48% · 74 games
AlchemistRAMZES666
Alchemist
Mirana
Miranazai
50% · 210 games53% · 57 games
Dark SeerMieRo
Dark Seer
Pudge
PudgemiCKe
52% · 55 games53% · 94 games
Rikikiyotaka
Riki
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
49% · 149 games41% · 64 games
TechiesAntares
Techies
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinBoxi
59% · 48 games46% · 267 games
EnchantressRodjER
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct44:15
Team Liquid 58%9Pandas 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenmiCKe
56% · 77 games45% · 70 games
MedusaRAMZES666
Medusa
Doom
Doomzai
49% · 334 games51% · 174 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
52% · 249 games47% · 170 games
EnchantressAntares
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnaBoxi
53% · 102 games41% · 220 games
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
Ember Spirit
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
63% · 22 games51% · 150 games
DisruptorRodjER
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2