ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
miCKe · 39 games
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 33 games
Tusksignature
Boxi · 31 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 28 games
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 27 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 25 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Boxi · 23 games
GamerLegion
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 19 games
Tusksignature
Bignum · 19 games
Dark Willow
Bignum · 17 games
Kezoften banned
RCY · 17 games
Phoenix
Speeed · 17 games
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
Warlock
Speeed · 16 games
Largooften banned
Fayde · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
516 picks · 372 bans
Rubick
377 picks · 226 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 651 bans
Tiny
342 picks · 348 bans
Windranger
321 picks · 236 bans
Bane
318 picks · 337 bans
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 443 bans
Pangolier
296 picks · 391 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 42%
Hero pool strength57% Team Liquid
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total84% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Team Liquid 71%GamerLegion 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinymiCKe
WindrangerGhost
InvokerNisha
KezRCY
Centaur WarrunnerAce
SlardarFayde
RingmasterBoxi
HoodwinkBignum
Witch DoctortOfu
BaneSpeeed
Game 2prediction correct44:20
Team Liquid 71%GamerLegion 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangermiCKe
InvokerRCY
Void SpiritNisha
TinyGhost
LargoAce
BeastmasterFayde
Dark WillowBoxi
HoodwinkBignum
TusktOfu
Winter WyvernSpeeed
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 84%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2