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ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 39 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 33 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 31 game
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 28 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 27 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 25 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Boxi · 23 games
52%

GamerLegion

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 19 games
74%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 17 games
29%
Kez
Kezoften banned
RCY · 17 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Speeed · 17 games
41%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 16 games
44%
Largo
Largooften banned
Fayde · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
516 picks · 372 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 226 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
371 picks · 651 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
342 picks · 348 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
321 picks · 236 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
318 picks · 337 bans
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 443 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
296 picks · 391 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 42%
Hero pool strength57% Team Liquid
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total84% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Team Liquid 71%GamerLegion 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
43% · 569 games47% · 318 games
WindrangerGhost
Windranger
Invoker
InvokerNisha
52% · 212 games52% · 226 games
KezRCY
Kez
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
51% · 433 games50% · 327 games
SlardarFayde
Slardar
Ringmaster
RingmasterBoxi
48% · 396 games52% · 557 games
HoodwinkBignum
Hoodwink
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctortOfu
49% · 62 games56% · 244 games
BaneSpeeed
Bane
Game 2prediction correct44:20
Team Liquid 71%GamerLegion 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
47% · 374 games54% · 205 games
InvokerRCY
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
47% · 316 games50% · 522 games
TinyGhost
Tiny
Largo
LargoAce
52% · 272 games49% · 307 games
BeastmasterFayde
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
42% · 214 games56% · 584 games
HoodwinkBignum
Hoodwink
Tusk
TusktOfu
53% · 529 games51% · 87 games
Winter WyvernSpeeed
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 84%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2