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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 12 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 9 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Noticed · 7 games
86%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
prblms · 7 games
43%
Bane
Bane
prblms · 6 games
33%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 25 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MidOne · 24 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 19 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 16 games
69%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
BOOM · 14 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 14 games
79%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
93%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
502 picks · 262 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
472 picks · 474 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
360 picks · 977 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
299 picks · 146 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
297 picks · 490 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
295 picks · 507 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
290 picks · 618 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:34
Team Yandex 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordWatson
44% · 45 games56% · 40 games
HuskarCrystallis
Huskar
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
46% · 270 games46% · 198 games
Void SpiritMidOne
Void Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroNoticed
53% · 92 games51% · 207 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMalady
58% · 38 games49% · 162 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Tusk
Tuskprblms
46% · 196 games60% · 34 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Game 2prediction correct15:27
Team Yandex 44%MOUZ 56%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidWatson
60% · 53 games41% · 74 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Leshrac
LeshracChira JUNIOR
59% · 93 games48% · 13 games
VenomancerMidOne
Venomancer
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNoticed
53% · 142 games42% · 189 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkprblms
51% · 188 games46% · 266 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressMalady
57% · 103 games53% · 37 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 62%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2