FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Warlock
Solo · 12 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 9 games
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Noticed · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
prblms · 7 games
Bane
prblms · 6 games
MOUZ
Tusk
yamich · 25 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MidOne · 24 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 16 games
Dawnbreakersignature
BOOM · 14 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 14 games
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
502 picks · 262 bans
Disruptor
472 picks · 474 bans
Puck
360 picks · 977 bans
Pugna
327 picks · 373 bans
Warlock
299 picks · 146 bans
Earthshaker
297 picks · 490 bans
Mars
295 picks · 507 bans
Batrider
290 picks · 618 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:34
Team Yandex 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordWatson
HuskarCrystallis
PuckChira JUNIOR
Void SpiritMidOne
JakiroNoticed
MarsBOOM
Ancient ApparitionMalady
EnchantressSeleri
Tuskprblms
Pudgeyamich
Game 2prediction correct15:27
Team Yandex 44%MOUZ 56%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidWatson
Troll WarlordCrystallis
LeshracChira JUNIOR
VenomancerMidOne
EarthshakerNoticed
MarsBOOM
Hoodwinkprblms
SnapfireSeleri
EnchantressMalady
Pudgeyamich
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 62%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2