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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
81%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Kez
Kezsignature
Watson · 16 games
75%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Malady · 16 games
88%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 15 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 15 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 15 games
73%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
80%

Natus Vincere

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Daze · 23 games
65%
Kez
Kezsignature
Niku · 23 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Axe
Axesignature
pma · 19 games
89%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 17 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 14 games
79%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Niku · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
485 picks · 292 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
349 picks · 148 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
344 picks · 157 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 466 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 457 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
277 picks · 259 bans
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
268 picks · 195 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 81%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total64% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:13
Team Yandex 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenWatson
52% · 108 games44% · 97 games
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomATF
53% · 288 games48% · 141 game
Axepma
Axe
Monkey King
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
50% · 213 games49% · 312 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMalady
48% · 242 games57% · 511 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSaksa
51% · 380 games48% · 170 games
MiranaRiddys
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Team Yandex 54%Natus Vincere 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 6:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperATF
54% · 101 game53% · 127 games
UndyingNiku
Undying
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWatson
56% · 146 games46% · 195 games
Axepma
Axe
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
50% · 154 games39% · 86 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Dazzle
DazzleMalady
51% · 102 games45% · 208 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
49% · 237 games58% · 124 games
Winter WyvernRiddys
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 64%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2