PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 20 games
Kezsignature
Watson · 16 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Malady · 16 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 15 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 15 games
Slardarsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
Natus Vincere
Hoodwinksignature
Daze · 23 games
Kezsignature
Niku · 23 games
Rubicksignature
Daze · 20 games
Axesignature
pma · 19 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 14 games
Invokersignature
Niku · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
485 picks · 292 bans
Mirana
349 picks · 148 bans
Dark Willow
344 picks · 157 bans
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 466 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 298 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 457 bans
Winter Wyvern
277 picks · 259 bans
Clockwerk
268 picks · 195 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 81%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total64% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:13
Team Yandex 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenWatson
Terrorbladegotthejuice
DoomATF
Axepma
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
Ember SpiritNiku
Winter WyvernMalady
HoodwinkDaze
Dark WillowSaksa
MiranaRiddys
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Team Yandex 54%Natus Vincere 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 6:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ViperATF
UndyingNiku
Nature's ProphetWatson
Axepma
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
Lifestealergotthejuice
DazzleMalady
Dark WillowDaze
WindrangerSaksa
Winter WyvernRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 64%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2