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OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 14 games
79%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Nine · 13 games
85%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 13 games
62%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 11 games
64%

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Saksa · 10 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Saksa · 8 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Taiga · 8 games
88%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 8 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
88%
Clinkz
Clinkz
SumaiL · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Topson · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 533 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
329 picks · 250 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
321 picks · 200 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
308 picks · 689 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
254 picks · 745 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
244 picks · 388 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
237 picks · 150 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 323 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:12
Tundra Esports 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
56% · 170 games45% · 91 game
MorphlingYuragi
Morphling
Visage
Visage33
53% · 12 games48% · 118 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomNine
44% · 127 games59% · 77 games
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Centaur Warrunner
Razor
RazorFata
52% · 120 games51% · 70 games
Shadow DemonTaiga
Shadow Demon
Bane
BaneSneyking
59% · 134 games38% · 207 games
LionMisha
Lion
Game 2prediction correct44:25
Tundra Esports 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 50:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
58% · 219 games53% · 11 games
Tinkerbzm
Tinker
Doom
Doom33
50% · 93 games46% · 324 games
MarsATF
Mars
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNine
46% · 140 games50% · 135 games
MedusaYuragi
Medusa
Io
IoSneyking
54% · 160 games50% · 129 games
WeaverMisha
Weaver
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightFata
55% · 160 games44% · 173 games
GrimstrokeTaiga
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2