OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 14 games
Batridersignature
Nine · 13 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 13 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 13 games
Lunasignature
Skiter · 12 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 11 games
OG
Snapfire
Saksa · 10 games
Lionsignature
Saksa · 8 games
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Taiga · 8 games
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
Clinkz
SumaiL · 7 games
Hoodwink
Topson · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
364 picks · 533 bans
Bane
329 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
321 picks · 200 bans
Weaver
308 picks · 689 bans
Monkey King
254 picks · 745 bans
Tidehunter
244 picks · 388 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:12
Tundra Esports 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingSkiter
MorphlingYuragi
Visage33
Ember Spiritbzm
DoomNine
Centaur WarrunnerATF
RazorFata
Shadow DemonTaiga
BaneSneyking
LionMisha
Game 2prediction correct44:25
Tundra Esports 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 50:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingSkiter
Tinkerbzm
Doom33
MarsATF
Queen of PainNine
MedusaYuragi
IoSneyking
WeaverMisha
Dragon KnightFata
GrimstrokeTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2