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ESL One Summer 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ViKin.ggloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 7 games
29%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 7 games
86%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 6 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Skiter · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Nine · 6 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fata · 5 games
60%

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 24 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 23 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 20 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 16 games
81%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BOOM · 16 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 15 games
87%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
378 picks · 975 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 201 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 584 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
338 picks · 362 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
295 picks · 172 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
288 picks · 218 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
282 picks · 625 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
273 picks · 465 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 82%
Hero pool strength60% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:13
Tundra Esports 30%ViKin.gg 70%
The model gave 70% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 50:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
44% · 21 game61% · 38 games
Templar AssassinBOOM
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckNine
45% · 229 games60% · 29 games
AxeKheZu
Axe
Enigma
EnigmaSneyking
40% · 32 games59% · 79 games
JuggernautShad
Juggernaut
Batrider
Batrider33
38% · 45 games52% · 126 games
Shadow ShamanAramis
Shadow Shaman
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFata
49% · 26 games58% · 81 game
AbaddonSeleri
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct20:23
Tundra Esports 30%ViKin.gg 70%
The model gave 70% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 44:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
54% · 28 games58% · 116 games
JuggernautShad
Juggernaut
Enigma
EnigmaSneyking
45% · 33 games59% · 51 game
RazorBOOM
Razor
Puck
PuckNine
47% · 222 games50% · 108 games
TidehunterKheZu
Tidehunter
Death Prophet
Death Prophet33
42% · 118 games48% · 21 game
HoodwinkSeleri
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireFata
49% · 117 games49% · 222 games
LionAramis
Lion
Game 3prediction missed23:14
Tundra Esports 31%ViKin.gg 69%
The model gave 69% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 52:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
56% · 60 games54% · 63 games
InvokerBOOM
Invoker
Leshrac
LeshracNine
51% · 62 games45% · 58 games
Troll WarlordShad
Troll Warlord
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
52% · 85 games44% · 60 games
AxeKheZu
Axe
Snapfire
SnapfireSneyking
51% · 93 games47% · 63 games
Dark WillowAramis
Dark Willow
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFata
56% · 44 games45% · 100 games
Elder TitanSeleri
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 82%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3