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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Yakult Brothersloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 42 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 31 game
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 30 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
77%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 26 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 26 games
73%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 24 games
63%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 30 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 28 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 26 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 24 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 23 games
30%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moon · 21 game
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 19 games
32%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
BoBoKa · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
681 picks · 840 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
590 picks · 611 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 420 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
486 picks · 330 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
420 picks · 1104 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
402 picks · 1019 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 699 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 629 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 35%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:13
Tundra Esports 62%Yakult Brothers 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciPure~
54% · 227 games39% · 174 games
WeaverGhost
Weaver
Batrider
Batrider33
53% · 389 games42% · 400 games
Queen of PainMoon
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
54% · 223 games56% · 161 game
LargoYang
Largo
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
55% · 274 games48% · 472 games
Shadow ShamanBoBoKa
Shadow Shaman
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
53% · 541 game47% · 447 games
Disruptor天命
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed36:39
Tundra Esports 61%Yakult Brothers 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 1:05:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
47% · 257 games59% · 314 games
Templar AssassinGhost
Templar Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPure~
53% · 318 games47% · 154 games
RazorYang
Razor
Visage
Visage33
56% · 5 games53% · 561 game
TinyMoon
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
46% · 515 games51% · 229 games
MuertaBoBoKa
Muerta
Tusk
TuskAri
45% · 588 games51% · 425 games
Shadow Demon天命
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Accuracy by game1 of 2