ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Batridersignature
Ari · 42 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 31 game
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 30 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
Timbersawsignature
33 · 26 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 26 games
Axesignature
33 · 24 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 30 games
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 28 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 26 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 23 games
Leshrac
Moon · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 19 games
Tinyoften banned
BoBoKa · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
681 picks · 840 bans
Tiny
590 picks · 611 bans
Tusk
486 picks · 420 bans
Warlock
486 picks · 330 bans
Shadow Demon
420 picks · 1104 bans
Shadow Fiend
402 picks · 1019 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 699 bans
Mars
390 picks · 629 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 35%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:13
Tundra Esports 62%Yakult Brothers 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciPure~
WeaverGhost
Batrider33
Queen of PainMoon
Void Spiritbzm
LargoYang
Shadow DemonAri
Shadow ShamanBoBoKa
JakiroWhitemon
Disruptor天命
Game 2prediction missed36:39
Tundra Esports 61%Yakult Brothers 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 1:05:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spiritbzm
Templar AssassinGhost
Shadow FiendPure~
RazorYang
Visage33
TinyMoon
WarlockWhitemon
MuertaBoBoKa
TuskAri
Shadow Demon天命
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Accuracy by game1 of 2