BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
lou · 7 games
Disruptor
Dy · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 5 games
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 5 games
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ws · 4 games
Roar Gaming
Snapfire
CatYou · 18 games
Disruptorsignature
RedPanda · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 12 games
Tusk
CatYou · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 11 games
Jakirooften banned
RedPanda · 11 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
CatYou · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
589 picks · 625 bans
Tusk
511 picks · 332 bans
Dragon Knight
502 picks · 688 bans
Snapfire
491 picks · 188 bans
Hoodwink
444 picks · 224 bans
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 530 bans
Mars
396 picks · 542 bans
Pangolier
383 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:10
Vici Gaming 78%Roar Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightshiro
Gyrocopterukiyo
TidehunterWs
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm SpiritXm
Centaur Warrunner生死
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Shadow DemonCatYou
Ringmastery`
DisruptorRedPanda
Game 2prediction correct17:4
Vici Gaming 79%Roar Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 17:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskarshiro
Gyrocopterukiyo
Storm SpiritXm
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
MarsWs
Centaur Warrunner生死
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
DisruptorRedPanda
Warlocky`
RingmasterCatYou
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 92%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2