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BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 7 games
71%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Dy · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ws · 4 games
50%

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
RedPanda · 15 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 12 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 12 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 11 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RedPanda · 11 games
27%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CatYou · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
589 picks · 625 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 332 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
502 picks · 688 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
491 picks · 188 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
444 picks · 224 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 530 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 542 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 538 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:10
Vici Gaming 78%Roar Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightshiro
48% · 520 games43% · 345 games
Gyrocopterukiyo
Gyrocopter
Tidehunter
TidehunterWs
45% · 240 games51% · 430 games
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
47% · 460 games57% · 373 games
Centaur Warrunner生死
Centaur Warrunner
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
56% · 119 games56% · 272 games
Shadow DemonCatYou
Shadow Demon
Ringmaster
Ringmastery`
51% · 339 games45% · 258 games
DisruptorRedPanda
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct17:4
Vici Gaming 79%Roar Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 17:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
Huskarshiro
53% · 96 games46% · 263 games
Gyrocopterukiyo
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
47% · 405 games47% · 271 game
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsWs
45% · 352 games58% · 309 games
Centaur Warrunner生死
Centaur Warrunner
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
56% · 104 games46% · 263 games
DisruptorRedPanda
Disruptor
Warlock
Warlocky`
49% · 426 games54% · 277 games
RingmasterCatYou
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 92%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2