PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
strongboysloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Disruptor
Xakoda · 26 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 25 games
Snapfire
sayuw · 25 games
Tusk
mrls · 25 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 25 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 24 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 22 games
strongboys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
552 picks · 838 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 370 bans
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 642 bans
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 583 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 765 bans
Gyrocopter
358 picks · 588 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 549 bans
Mars
342 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% strongboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:34
Yellow Submarine 49%strongboys 51%
The model gave 51% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursabottega
TimbersawChodΣX
Ember SpiritMirele
ClinkzLowskill
BrewmasterInfernal
PuckStojkov
Batriderprblms
TinyPonlo
RingmasterHtrd
PugnaTobi
Game 2prediction missed40:20
Yellow Submarine 49%strongboys 51%
The model gave 51% on strongboys — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 46:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertabottega
WeaverLowskill
Void SpiritMirele
TimbersawChodΣX
BrewmasterInfernal
Queen of PainStojkov
Earth Spiritprblms
UndyingTobi
Ogre MagiHtrd
TinyPonlo
Game 3prediction missed15:28
Yellow Submarine 46%strongboys 54%
The model gave 54% on strongboys — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 47:51.
Model check result
Model favoritestrongboys · 54%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3