Yellow Submarine vs strongboys — prediction PWS7ОК · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Yellow Submarinewin 2:1

series probability

46%54%

probability at match start · final 2:1

strongboysloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Disruptor

Xakoda · 26 games

38%

Ember Spiritsignature

Mirele · 26 games

62%

Beastmasteroften banned

Infernal · 25 games

56%

Snapfire

sayuw · 25 games

48%

Tusk

mrls · 25 games

36%

Void Spirit

Mirele · 25 games

48%

Queen of Painoften banned

Mirele · 24 games

42%

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

Infernal · 22 games

50%

strongboys

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

552 picks · 838 bans

50%

Tusk

516 picks · 370 bans

47%

Dragon Knight

478 picks · 642 bans

50%

Centaur Warrunner

459 picks · 583 bans

55%

Shadow Demon

393 picks · 765 bans

53%

Gyrocopter

358 picks · 588 bans

49%

Ember Spirit

344 picks · 549 bans

59%

Mars

342 picks · 484 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)51% vs 71%

Hero pool strength52% strongboys

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total54% strongboys

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct35:34

Yellow Submarine 49%strongboys 51%

The model gave 51% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 44:03.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo