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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-1070u
ROI
-11.2%
win rate
42%
bets
543
drawdown
110.9%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-102u
period 6top-up-200u
period 5top-up-186u
period 4top-up-45u
period 3top-up-165u
period 2top-up-363u
period 1top-up-10u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll54342%-543-10.7%58.9%Select
Flat (10 units)54342%-549-10.1%61.5%Select
Martingale4646%-908-50.2%92.2%Select
2% of bankroll54342%-1070-11.2%110.9%Selected
5% of bankroll54342%-2514-12.9%242.9%Select
10% of bankroll54342%-4335-15.4%410.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 543, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.9018lost-18-70
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1119lost-19-52
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.1119lost-19-33
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.9919lost-19-14
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6120lost-205
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1219won+4025
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9719lost-19-15
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.9219won+184
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5119lost-19-13
10.10.26Desi Boyz – EMPIREEMPIRE1.9419won+186
10.10.26Isurus – ProcyonIsurus2.0820lost-20-12
09.10.26WBT Academy – SAW YoungstersSAW Youngsters2.4719won+288
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.0519lost-19-20
09.10.26Azuolas – EnjoyAzuolas2.8919won+35-1
09.10.26regain – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.9718won+18-36
08.10.26SINNERS – Black PhoenixSINNERS1.9719lost-19-54
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0718won+20-35
08.10.26Azuolas – MisaAzuolas2.4319lost-19-55
08.10.26Alter Ego – KaleidoKaleido2.2018won+22-36
08.10.26HYPERSPIRIT – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya1.9619lost-19-58
08.10.26BESTIA Academy – ALKAALKA1.9018won+16-39
07.10.26Famalicão – Lazer CatsFamalicão2.5519lost-19-56
07.10.26Sangal – SAWSAW2.0919lost-19-37
07.10.26Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTECIberian Soul2.4018won+26-18
07.10.26BERG – LeoBERG3.0819lost-19-44
07.10.26Banda Chuya – HYPERSPIRITBanda Chuya1.9019lost-19-25
07.10.26OG – SINQUSINQU2.8520lost-20-6
07.10.26OG – Falcons ForceFalcons Force2.3819won+2614
07.10.26OG – Orion WanderersOrion Wanderers2.3220lost-20-13
07.10.26Gothic – LPHGothic2.2919won+257
06.10.26FURIA – AuroraFURIA1.9719lost-19-18
06.10.26Spirit – 1win1win2.4119won+272
05.10.26PARIVISION – FURIAPARIVISION2.3219lost-19-25
03.10.26NT – Lazer CatsNT2.1519won+22-6
03.10.26regain – LAGregain2.4119lost-19-27
02.10.26Alliance – NemigaAlliance3.4520lost-20-8
02.10.26FOKUS – BBLBBL2.0919won+2111
02.10.26Eternal Fire – AnteikuAnteiku3.9620lost-20-10
02.10.26SportsBetExpert – XEPTXEPT3.3020lost-2010
02.10.26Bounty Hunters – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.2320lost-2030
02.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – SportsBetExpertNinjas in Pyjamas2.5620won+3150
02.10.26Fire Flux – benched godsbenched gods2.1520lost-2020
02.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – SangalNinjas in Pyjamas2.0921lost-2140
02.10.26Astralis – FaZeAstralis1.9420won+1960
02.10.261337 – NEXVOID13372.4421lost-2141
01.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – CYBERSHOKECYBERSHOKE2.1521lost-2162
01.10.26EAC – ex-Zero TenacityEAC2.7120won+3583
01.10.26Yawara – BORRACHEIROSYawara1.9120won+1848
01.10.26SINQU – FamalicãoFamalicão1.9420won+1830
01.10.26ex-ODDIK – Miraex-ODDIK2.2920lost-2012
30.09.26Leo – mellrenLeo2.1516lost-1632
29.09.26MASONIC – EnjoyMASONIC2.4016won+2248
29.09.26WW – DNKDNK2.2415won+1926
29.09.26Bushido Wildcats – VISIONVISION2.3915won+217
28.09.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – GamerLegionNinjas in Pyjamas1.9015won+13-14
28.09.26regain – LAGregain2.2115lost-15-28
28.09.26Marsborne – FarmVilleFarmVille2.8415lost-15-13
28.09.26Galorys – ProcyonProcyon2.7715won+263
27.09.26Fluxo – SAWSAW2.8314won+26-24
27.09.26KUUSAMO – Noir VerseKUUSAMO1.9615lost-15-50
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.