Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-168u
ROI
-6.7%
win rate
45%
bets
251
drawdown
22.1%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Flat (10 units)
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-63u
period 3top-up-92u
period 2top-up-22u
period 1profit withdrawn+8u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 251 | 45% | -168 | -6.7% | 22.1% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 251 | 45% | -175 | -7.1% | 22.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 137 | 47% | -227 | -4.9% | 56.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 251 | 45% | -361 | -7.6% | 44.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 251 | 45% | -966 | -8.8% | 101.4% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 251 | 45% | -1986 | -10.8% | 167.1% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 251, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | LPH | 2.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 832 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | mellren | 2.46 | 10 | won | +15 | 842 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | Noir Verse | 2.20 | 10 | won | +12 | 827 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.13 | 10 | lost | -10 | 815 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | Bebop | 2.05 | 10 | lost | -10 | 825 |
| 17.08.26 | mellren – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.15 | 10 | lost | -10 | 835 |
| 16.08.26 | eternal premium – Phantom Academy | eternal premium | 2.03 | 10 | lost | -10 | 845 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | Misa | 1.99 | 10 | lost | -10 | 855 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | ROUNDS | 2.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | 865 |
| 15.08.26 | Atreides – LPH | Atreides | 2.39 | 10 | lost | -10 | 875 |
| 15.08.26 | Bebop – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 885 |
| 14.08.26 | K27 – MIBR | MIBR | 2.00 | 10 | won | +10 | 876 |
| 14.08.26 | SINQU – Lavked | Lavked | 2.14 | 10 | won | +11 | 866 |
| 14.08.26 | NEW VISION – Arch | NEW VISION | 2.35 | 10 | won | +14 | 855 |
| 13.08.26 | Subtop De France – Vexar | Subtop De France | 2.38 | 10 | lost | -10 | 842 |
| 13.08.26 | GamerLegion – JiJieHao | GamerLegion | 2.36 | 10 | won | +14 | 852 |
| 12.08.26 | Endless Journey – HAVU | HAVU | 2.60 | 10 | won | +16 | 838 |
| 12.08.26 | BIG – Aurora | Aurora | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 822 |
| 09.08.26 | Sashi – BIG | BIG | 2.14 | 10 | won | +11 | 832 |
| 09.08.26 | FOKUS – Acend | FOKUS | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 821 |
| 09.08.26 | Echo – GenOne | Echo | 2.27 | 10 | lost | -10 | 831 |
| 09.08.26 | JiJieHao – DENDELE | JiJieHao | 1.99 | 10 | won | +10 | 841 |
| 08.08.26 | Jam – UNiTY | UNiTY | 2.28 | 10 | lost | -10 | 831 |
| 08.08.26 | Fluxo – DUSTY | DUSTY | 2.23 | 10 | lost | -10 | 841 |
| 08.08.26 | Black Phoenix – CYBERSHOKE | Black Phoenix | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 851 |
| 08.08.26 | Dark Tigre – MANGANESE | MANGANESE | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 861 |
| 08.08.26 | Liquid – Metizport | Metizport | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 871 |
| 07.08.26 | Citron – BASEMENT BOYS | Citron | 2.21 | 10 | lost | -10 | 881 |
| 07.08.26 | INFINITE – Aogiri | Aogiri | 2.05 | 10 | lost | -10 | 891 |
| 07.08.26 | ex-GUARA – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 901 |
| 05.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Butterfly | ex-RUSTEC | 1.92 | 10 | lost | -10 | 892 |
| 05.08.26 | UNO MILLE – ODDIK Academy | ODDIK Academy | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 902 |
| 05.08.26 | CYBERSHOKE – los kogutos | los kogutos | 2.16 | 10 | lost | -10 | 912 |
| 04.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Leo | Bushido Wildcats | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 922 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 2.43 | 10 | won | +14 | 913 |
| 04.08.26 | Acend – Betclic | Betclic | 2.17 | 10 | won | +12 | 898 |
| 04.08.26 | Yawara – ex-GUARA | ex-GUARA | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 887 |
| 03.08.26 | Imperial – Procyon | Procyon | 2.58 | 10 | lost | -10 | 897 |
| 03.08.26 | ex-MANA – MOUZ NXT | ex-MANA | 1.99 | 10 | won | +10 | 907 |
| 03.08.26 | SPARTA – ex-Young Ninjas | SPARTA | 1.98 | 10 | won | +10 | 897 |
| 03.08.26 | Noir Verse – Fortress | Noir Verse | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 887 |
| 03.08.26 | Rooster – Finishers | Finishers | 2.06 | 10 | lost | -10 | 878 |
| 02.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fire Flux | Bushido Wildcats | 1.99 | 10 | won | +10 | 888 |
| 02.08.26 | Sashi – SINNERS | SINNERS | 2.35 | 10 | lost | -10 | 878 |
| 02.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Fire Flux | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.94 | 10 | lost | -10 | 888 |
| 02.08.26 | 9INE – BRUTE | 9INE | 2.56 | 10 | lost | -10 | 898 |
| 01.08.26 | ENCE – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 908 |
| 01.08.26 | Just Players – Sashi | Sashi | 2.29 | 10 | won | +13 | 899 |
| 01.08.26 | Liquid – atputies | atputies | 2.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 886 |
| 01.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Butterfly | Black Phoenix | 2.11 | 10 | won | +11 | 896 |
| 01.08.26 | ENCE – HAVU | HAVU | 2.22 | 10 | lost | -10 | 885 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – ROUNDS | ROUNDS | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 895 |
| 31.07.26 | paiN – Astralis | Astralis | 1.91 | 10 | won | +9 | 905 |
| 31.07.26 | INOX Division – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 2.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 896 |
| 31.07.26 | SINNERS – Rune Eaters | SINNERS | 2.78 | 10 | won | +18 | 906 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – BC.Game | HAVU | 1.99 | 10 | lost | -10 | 888 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – Trainwrecks | HAVU | 2.16 | 10 | won | +12 | 898 |
| 31.07.26 | BESTIA – Galorys | BESTIA | 1.93 | 10 | won | +9 | 886 |
| 30.07.26 | aimclub – Spirit Academy | Spirit Academy | 1.94 | 10 | lost | -10 | 877 |
| 30.07.26 | GenOne – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 2.25 | 10 | lost | -10 | 887 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.