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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-536u
ROI
-9.9%
win rate
42%
bets
543
drawdown
63.5%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-28u
period 6top-up-132u
period 5profit withdrawn+39u
period 4top-up-174u
period 3top-up-30u
period 2top-up-132u
period 1top-up-79u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll54342%-529-10.4%61.9%Select
Flat (10 units)54342%-536-9.9%63.5%Selected
Martingale4540%-997-45.5%99.7%Select
2% of bankroll54342%-1042-10.9%120.4%Select
5% of bankroll54342%-2444-12.3%273.1%Select
10% of bankroll54342%-4262-14%455.7%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 543, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.4110won+14464
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1110lost-10450
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.9910lost-10460
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4510lost-10470
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6110lost-10480
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1210won+21490
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4510won+15469
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.9210won+9454
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5110lost-10445
10.10.26FarmVille – Wanted GoonsWanted Goons2.6310won+16455
10.10.26Isurus – ProcyonIsurus2.0810lost-10439
09.10.26Misa – 666666662.0710won+11449
09.10.26mellren – BebopBebop3.0810won+21438
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.0510lost-10417
09.10.26Villainous – Reign AboveVillainous2.2010won+12427
08.10.26Saint Sinners – mellrenSaint Sinners2.5410won+15415
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0710won+11400
08.10.26EAC – PUREEAC2.1210lost-10389
08.10.26Lynn Vision – Chinggis WarriorsLynn Vision1.9110won+9399
08.10.26ENCE – LFO 10LFO 102.1910lost-10390
08.10.26Isurus – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.0710lost-10400
07.10.26Sangal – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior2.8110won+18410
07.10.26Lazer Cats – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior2.0710won+11392
07.10.26Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTECIberian Soul2.4010won+14381
07.10.26BERG – LeoBERG3.0810lost-10367
07.10.26Vexar – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners2.2910won+13377
07.10.26Falcons Force – Orion WanderersOrion Wanderers2.1110lost-10365
07.10.26G2 Ares – SINQUSINQU2.5410lost-10375
07.10.26G2 Ares – Falcons ForceFalcons Force1.9610lost-10385
07.10.26benched gods – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya2.1910lost-10395
06.10.26FURIA – AuroraFURIA1.9710lost-10405
06.10.26G2 – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.4810won+15415
05.10.26ShindeN – G2ShindeN1.9310lost-10400
03.10.26NT – Lazer CatsNT2.1510won+12410
03.10.26regain – LAGregain2.4110lost-10398
02.10.26Alliance – NemigaAlliance3.4510lost-10408
02.10.26Eternal Fire – BASEMENT BOYSBASEMENT BOYS2.5210lost-10418
02.10.26BC.Game – SashiSashi2.1210lost-10428
02.10.26SportsBetExpert – XEPTXEPT3.3010lost-10438
02.10.26Bounty Hunters – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.2310lost-10448
02.10.26Voca – SashiSashi2.2710lost-10458
02.10.26UNiTY – aimclubaimclub2.0410lost-10468
02.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – SangalNinjas in Pyjamas2.0910lost-10478
02.10.26Astralis – FaZeAstralis1.9410won+9488
02.10.261337 – NEXVOID13372.4410lost-10479
01.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – CYBERSHOKECYBERSHOKE2.1510lost-10489
01.10.26EAC – ex-Zero TenacityEAC2.7110won+17499
01.10.26Lavked – HYPERSPIRITHYPERSPIRIT1.9710lost-10482
01.10.26SINQU – FamalicãoFamalicão1.9410won+9492
01.10.26ex-ODDIK – Miraex-ODDIK2.2910lost-10482
30.09.26Azuolas – EnjoyAzuolas2.4510lost-10492
29.09.26MASONIC – EnjoyMASONIC2.4010won+14502
29.09.26WW – DNKDNK2.2410won+12488
29.09.26Rune Eaters – DNKDNK2.1710lost-10476
28.09.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – GamerLegionNinjas in Pyjamas1.9010won+9486
28.09.26regain – LAGregain2.2110lost-10477
28.09.26Marsborne – FarmVilleFarmVille2.8410lost-10487
28.09.26Galorys – ProcyonProcyon2.7710won+18497
27.09.26KUUSAMO – Noir VerseKUUSAMO1.9610lost-10479
27.09.26INFINITE – RBLSINFINITE1.9510won+10489
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.