Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-4038u
ROI
-11.6%
win rate
42%
bets
547
drawdown
358.2%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-559u
period 6top-up-973u
period 5profit withdrawn+72u
period 4top-up-813u
period 3top-up-538u
period 2top-up-712u
period 1top-up-514u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 547 | 42% | -539 | -10.5% | 55.6% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 547 | 42% | -560 | -10.2% | 57.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 547 | 42% | -1037 | -10.7% | 105.3% | Select |
| Martingale | 45 | 42% | -1052 | -45.4% | 104.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 547 | 42% | -2334 | -11.2% | 225.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 547 | 42% | -4038 | -11.6% | 358.2% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 547, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – HOTU | fnatic | 2.03 | 40 | won | +41 | -3038 |
| 14.10.26 | BET-M – FORZE Reload | BET-M | 2.13 | 44 | lost | -44 | -3079 |
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – Sashi | Sashi | 2.98 | 49 | lost | -49 | -3034 |
| 14.10.26 | Lynn Vision – Alter Ego | Lynn Vision | 2.03 | 45 | won | +46 | -2985 |
| 14.10.26 | Enjoy – B8 Academy | B8 Academy | 1.90 | 50 | lost | -50 | -3031 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 55 | lost | -55 | -2981 |
| 13.10.26 | Liquid – BBL | BBL | 2.11 | 61 | lost | -61 | -2926 |
| 12.10.26 | Sangal – Betclic | Betclic | 2.45 | 68 | lost | -68 | -2865 |
| 12.10.26 | BORRACHEIROS – Bounty Hunters | BORRACHEIROS | 2.09 | 76 | lost | -76 | -2797 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 63 | won | +132 | -2721 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | acidhouze | 2.45 | 55 | won | +79 | -2853 |
| 11.10.26 | benched gods – Illyrians | Illyrians | 1.92 | 50 | won | +46 | -2932 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 2.51 | 56 | lost | -56 | -2978 |
| 10.10.26 | regain – Villainous | Villainous | 2.26 | 62 | lost | -62 | -2923 |
| 10.10.26 | Isurus – Procyon | Isurus | 2.08 | 69 | lost | -69 | -2861 |
| 09.10.26 | WBT Academy – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.47 | 60 | won | +88 | -2792 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Azuolas | 2.89 | 50 | won | +95 | -2880 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Leo | 2.05 | 56 | lost | -56 | -2976 |
| 09.10.26 | Chicken Coop – DETONATE | DETONATE | 1.97 | 62 | lost | -62 | -2920 |
| 08.10.26 | Leo – Privateer | Privateer | 3.78 | 69 | lost | -69 | -2858 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 62 | won | +67 | -2789 |
| 08.10.26 | megoshort – Fire Flux | megoshort | 2.56 | 69 | lost | -69 | -2855 |
| 08.10.26 | Alter Ego – Kaleido | Kaleido | 2.20 | 62 | won | +74 | -2786 |
| 08.10.26 | BERG – mellren | BERG | 3.32 | 69 | lost | -69 | -2860 |
| 08.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – Procyon | Procyon | 1.96 | 76 | lost | -76 | -2791 |
| 07.10.26 | Famalicão – Lazer Cats | Famalicão | 2.55 | 85 | lost | -85 | -2715 |
| 07.10.26 | RBLS – Famalicão | Famalicão | 2.40 | 94 | lost | -94 | -2630 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 83 | won | +116 | -2536 |
| 07.10.26 | Revise – Banda Chuya | Banda Chuya | 2.31 | 73 | won | +96 | -2652 |
| 07.10.26 | The KnockoutX – The Huns | The KnockoutX | 2.11 | 66 | won | +73 | -2748 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – SINQU | SINQU | 2.85 | 73 | lost | -73 | -2820 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 2.38 | 64 | won | +89 | -2747 |
| 07.10.26 | PURE – SINQU | SINQU | 2.45 | 71 | lost | -71 | -2836 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | Gothic | 2.29 | 63 | won | +82 | -2765 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 70 | lost | -70 | -2846 |
| 06.10.26 | Spirit – 1win | 1win | 2.41 | 62 | won | +87 | -2776 |
| 05.10.26 | ShindeN – G2 | ShindeN | 1.93 | 68 | lost | -68 | -2863 |
| 03.10.26 | Aurora – 9z | 9z | 2.27 | 76 | lost | -76 | -2794 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 85 | lost | -85 | -2718 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 94 | lost | -94 | -2634 |
| 02.10.26 | Eternal Fire – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 2.52 | 104 | lost | -104 | -2540 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Prestige | Prestige | 2.64 | 116 | lost | -116 | -2435 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 129 | lost | -129 | -2319 |
| 02.10.26 | Nexus – 6yuBoJlbl | 6yuBoJlbl | 2.24 | 115 | won | +143 | -2191 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – SportsBetExpert | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.56 | 99 | won | +155 | -2333 |
| 02.10.26 | UNiTY – aimclub | aimclub | 2.04 | 110 | lost | -110 | -2488 |
| 02.10.26 | BBL – SportsBetExpert | BBL | 3.02 | 92 | won | +185 | -2378 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 84 | won | +78 | -2563 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 93 | lost | -93 | -2641 |
| 01.10.26 | FaZe – Nemiga | FaZe | 3.98 | 103 | lost | -103 | -2548 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 88 | won | +151 | -2445 |
| 01.10.26 | HOTU – Nemesis | Nemesis | 1.90 | 81 | won | +73 | -2596 |
| 01.10.26 | SAW – NT | NT | 2.32 | 90 | lost | -90 | -2669 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 100 | lost | -100 | -2579 |
| 30.09.26 | EVO Elite – Magnum | EVO Elite | 1.91 | 3 | lost | -3 | -2479 |
| 29.09.26 | MASONIC – Enjoy | MASONIC | 2.40 | 3 | won | +4 | -2476 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 2 | won | +3 | -2479 |
| 29.09.26 | Rune Eaters – DNK | DNK | 2.17 | 3 | lost | -3 | -2482 |
| 28.09.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – GamerLegion | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.90 | 2 | won | +2 | -2480 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.21 | 3 | lost | -3 | -2482 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.