Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-365u
ROI
-7.9%
win rate
45%
bets
249
drawdown
48.1%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
2% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+1u
period 3top-up-137u
period 2top-up-106u
period 1top-up-123u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 249 | 45% | +1219 | +15% | 30% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 45% | -169 | -6.8% | 23.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 45% | -176 | -7.3% | 24.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 45% | -365 | -7.9% | 48.1% | Selected |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 45% | -982 | -9.5% | 115.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 45% | -2009 | -12.3% | 203.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | The Last Resort | 1.98 | 20 | lost | -20 | 635 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | Leo | 2.01 | 21 | lost | -21 | 655 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Misa | 2.06 | 21 | lost | -21 | 676 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Entropy | 1.92 | 22 | lost | -22 | 697 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | benched gods | 2.03 | 21 | won | +22 | 719 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | Lavked | 2.70 | 21 | won | +35 | 697 |
| 16.08.26 | ENCE – WBT | ENCE | 2.13 | 21 | lost | -21 | 662 |
| 15.08.26 | FURIA – 9z | FURIA | 2.04 | 21 | won | +21 | 683 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Misa | 2.28 | 20 | won | +26 | 662 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | METANOIA Wolves | 2.52 | 19 | won | +30 | 636 |
| 14.08.26 | The Last Resort – Honvéd | Honvéd | 2.10 | 19 | won | +21 | 606 |
| 14.08.26 | B8 – Vitality | Vitality | 1.92 | 19 | lost | -19 | 585 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | GUESS | 2.07 | 20 | lost | -20 | 605 |
| 13.08.26 | Honvéd – Bebop | Bebop | 1.96 | 19 | won | +19 | 625 |
| 13.08.26 | Abyssal – Ground Zero | Abyssal | 2.12 | 20 | lost | -20 | 606 |
| 12.08.26 | G2 – M80 | G2 | 1.89 | 20 | won | +17 | 626 |
| 10.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | METANOIA Wolves | 2.37 | 20 | lost | -20 | 608 |
| 09.08.26 | UNiTY – Nexus | UNiTY | 2.14 | 19 | won | +22 | 628 |
| 09.08.26 | LFO 7 – Anteiku | Anteiku | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 606 |
| 09.08.26 | JiJieHao – DENDELE | JiJieHao | 1.99 | 19 | won | +19 | 626 |
| 09.08.26 | INFINITE – 100 Thieves | INFINITE | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 607 |
| 08.08.26 | Butterfly – CYBERSHOKE | CYBERSHOKE | 2.05 | 19 | won | +20 | 627 |
| 08.08.26 | Iberian Soul – 6666 | 6666 | 2.26 | 20 | lost | -20 | 606 |
| 08.08.26 | SadFamous – Eternal Fire | SadFamous | 2.08 | 20 | lost | -20 | 626 |
| 08.08.26 | Sangal – Zeste | Zeste | 1.91 | 21 | lost | -21 | 646 |
| 07.08.26 | MANGANESE – SINNERS | SINNERS | 2.13 | 20 | won | +23 | 667 |
| 07.08.26 | z to forward – DUSTY | z to forward | 1.90 | 21 | lost | -21 | 644 |
| 07.08.26 | HEROIC – REM | HEROIC | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 665 |
| 06.08.26 | eSuba – NAVI Junior | eSuba | 1.98 | 20 | won | +20 | 647 |
| 06.08.26 | Ground Zero – Abyssal | Abyssal | 2.21 | 20 | lost | -20 | 627 |
| 06.08.26 | Lavked – Black Phoenix | Lavked | 2.35 | 21 | lost | -21 | 648 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Leo | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.97 | 20 | won | +20 | 668 |
| 04.08.26 | fnatic – EAC | EAC | 2.62 | 21 | lost | -21 | 649 |
| 04.08.26 | Eternal Fire – INOX Division | Eternal Fire | 2.13 | 21 | lost | -21 | 669 |
| 04.08.26 | Sashi – Phantom | Sashi | 1.99 | 21 | won | +21 | 690 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – NEW VISION | NEW VISION | 2.65 | 21 | lost | -21 | 670 |
| 04.08.26 | Finishers – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 1.96 | 21 | won | +20 | 691 |
| 03.08.26 | ex-MANA – MOUZ NXT | ex-MANA | 1.99 | 20 | won | +20 | 671 |
| 03.08.26 | Johnny Speeds – Metizport | Johnny Speeds | 1.92 | 20 | won | +18 | 651 |
| 03.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Fire Flux | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 633 |
| 02.08.26 | MIBR – BESTIA | MIBR | 2.11 | 19 | won | +21 | 614 |
| 02.08.26 | aimclub – Spirit Academy | Spirit Academy | 1.93 | 19 | won | +17 | 592 |
| 02.08.26 | FAVBET – Misa | Misa | 2.09 | 18 | won | +20 | 575 |
| 02.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 2.34 | 19 | lost | -19 | 555 |
| 02.08.26 | SportsBetExpert – Marsborne | SportsBetExpert | 1.90 | 18 | won | +17 | 574 |
| 01.08.26 | MIBR – ShindeN | MIBR | 2.11 | 18 | won | +20 | 557 |
| 01.08.26 | BC.Game – SINQU | SINQU | 1.90 | 18 | lost | -18 | 537 |
| 01.08.26 | JiJieHao – GenOne | JiJieHao | 2.60 | 19 | lost | -19 | 556 |
| 01.08.26 | FaZe – Spirit | FaZe | 2.28 | 19 | lost | -19 | 574 |
| 01.08.26 | Marsborne – regain | regain | 1.92 | 20 | lost | -20 | 594 |
| 01.08.26 | LAG – SportsBetExpert | LAG | 2.21 | 20 | lost | -20 | 613 |
| 31.07.26 | Lavked – megoshort | megoshort | 2.10 | 17 | won | +19 | 633 |
| 31.07.26 | K27 – Just Players | K27 | 2.22 | 17 | lost | -17 | 615 |
| 31.07.26 | ex-Young Ninjas – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.00 | 18 | lost | -18 | 632 |
| 31.07.26 | FaZe – The MongolZ | The MongolZ | 1.98 | 18 | lost | -18 | 649 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.92 | 18 | won | +16 | 667 |
| 31.07.26 | INFINITE – SPARTA | SPARTA | 2.18 | 17 | won | +20 | 651 |
| 30.07.26 | SPARTA – NEW VISION | NEW VISION | 2.02 | 18 | lost | -18 | 631 |
| 30.07.26 | GenOne – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 2.26 | 18 | lost | -18 | 649 |
| 30.07.26 | 1win – los kogutos | los kogutos | 2.37 | 18 | lost | -18 | 667 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.