Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1042u
ROI
-10.9%
win rate
42%
bets
543
drawdown
120.4%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
2% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-68u
period 6top-up-257u
period 5profit withdrawn+59u
period 4top-up-305u
period 3top-up-70u
period 2top-up-251u
period 1top-up-151u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -529 | -10.4% | 61.9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 543 | 42% | -536 | -9.9% | 63.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 45 | 40% | -997 | -45.5% | 99.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -1042 | -10.9% | 120.4% | Selected |
| 5% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -2444 | -12.3% | 273.1% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -4262 | -14% | 455.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 543, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | GenOne – 6666 | 6666 | 2.41 | 18 | won | +26 | -42 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 19 | lost | -19 | -68 |
| 13.10.26 | 100 Thieves – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.99 | 19 | lost | -19 | -49 |
| 12.10.26 | Sangal – Betclic | Betclic | 2.45 | 19 | lost | -19 | -30 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Yawara | 2.61 | 20 | lost | -20 | -11 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 19 | won | +40 | 9 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | acidhouze | 2.45 | 18 | won | +27 | -31 |
| 11.10.26 | benched gods – Illyrians | Illyrians | 1.92 | 18 | won | +17 | -58 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 2.51 | 18 | lost | -18 | -74 |
| 10.10.26 | FarmVille – Wanted Goons | Wanted Goons | 2.63 | 18 | won | +29 | -56 |
| 10.10.26 | Isurus – Procyon | Isurus | 2.08 | 18 | lost | -18 | -85 |
| 09.10.26 | Misa – 6666 | 6666 | 2.07 | 18 | won | +19 | -67 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | Bebop | 3.08 | 17 | won | +35 | -86 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Leo | 2.05 | 17 | lost | -17 | -121 |
| 09.10.26 | Villainous – Reign Above | Villainous | 2.20 | 17 | won | +20 | -104 |
| 08.10.26 | Saint Sinners – mellren | Saint Sinners | 2.54 | 16 | won | +25 | -124 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 16 | won | +17 | -150 |
| 08.10.26 | EAC – PURE | EAC | 2.12 | 16 | lost | -16 | -167 |
| 08.10.26 | Lynn Vision – Chinggis Warriors | Lynn Vision | 1.91 | 16 | won | +15 | -150 |
| 08.10.26 | ENCE – LFO 10 | LFO 10 | 2.19 | 17 | lost | -17 | -165 |
| 08.10.26 | Isurus – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 2.07 | 17 | lost | -17 | -149 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 2.81 | 16 | won | +29 | -132 |
| 07.10.26 | Lazer Cats – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 2.07 | 16 | won | +17 | -161 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 15 | won | +22 | -178 |
| 07.10.26 | BERG – Leo | BERG | 3.08 | 16 | lost | -16 | -200 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 2.29 | 15 | won | +20 | -184 |
| 07.10.26 | Falcons Force – Orion Wanderers | Orion Wanderers | 2.11 | 16 | lost | -16 | -204 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – SINQU | SINQU | 2.54 | 16 | lost | -16 | -188 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 1.96 | 16 | lost | -16 | -172 |
| 07.10.26 | benched gods – Banda Chuya | Banda Chuya | 2.19 | 17 | lost | -17 | -156 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 17 | lost | -17 | -139 |
| 06.10.26 | G2 – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.48 | 17 | won | +25 | -122 |
| 05.10.26 | ShindeN – G2 | ShindeN | 1.93 | 17 | lost | -17 | -147 |
| 03.10.26 | NT – Lazer Cats | NT | 2.15 | 17 | won | +19 | -130 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 17 | lost | -17 | -149 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 17 | lost | -17 | -132 |
| 02.10.26 | Eternal Fire – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 2.52 | 18 | lost | -18 | -115 |
| 02.10.26 | BC.Game – Sashi | Sashi | 2.12 | 18 | lost | -18 | -97 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 18 | lost | -18 | -79 |
| 02.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 2.23 | 19 | lost | -19 | -61 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Sashi | Sashi | 2.27 | 19 | lost | -19 | -42 |
| 02.10.26 | UNiTY – aimclub | aimclub | 2.04 | 19 | lost | -19 | -23 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Sangal | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.09 | 20 | lost | -20 | -4 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 19 | won | +18 | 16 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 20 | lost | -20 | -2 |
| 01.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – CYBERSHOKE | CYBERSHOKE | 2.15 | 20 | lost | -20 | 18 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 20 | won | +33 | 38 |
| 01.10.26 | Lavked – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.97 | 20 | lost | -20 | 4 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | Famalicão | 1.94 | 20 | won | +18 | 24 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 20 | lost | -20 | 6 |
| 30.09.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Azuolas | 2.45 | 15 | lost | -15 | 26 |
| 29.09.26 | MASONIC – Enjoy | MASONIC | 2.40 | 15 | won | +21 | 41 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 14 | won | +18 | 20 |
| 29.09.26 | Rune Eaters – DNK | DNK | 2.17 | 15 | lost | -15 | 2 |
| 28.09.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – GamerLegion | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.90 | 14 | won | +13 | 17 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.21 | 15 | lost | -15 | 4 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | FarmVille | 2.84 | 15 | lost | -15 | 19 |
| 28.09.26 | Galorys – Procyon | Procyon | 2.77 | 15 | won | +26 | 34 |
| 27.09.26 | KUUSAMO – Noir Verse | KUUSAMO | 1.96 | 15 | lost | -15 | 8 |
| 27.09.26 | INFINITE – RBLS | INFINITE | 1.95 | 15 | won | +14 | 23 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.