Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-3360u
ROI
-8.6%
win rate
45%
bets
548
drawdown
260.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-398u
period 6top-up-843u
period 5top-up-171u
period 4top-up-651u
period 3top-up-627u
period 2top-up-520u
period 1top-up-150u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat (10 units) | 548 | 45% | -232 | -4.2% | 30.7% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 548 | 45% | -253 | -4.7% | 32.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 548 | 45% | -542 | -5.2% | 64.1% | Select |
| Martingale | 51 | 47% | -884 | -42.3% | 90.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 548 | 45% | -1556 | -6.6% | 152.4% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 548 | 45% | -3360 | -8.6% | 260.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 548, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | FURIA – BETBOOM | BETBOOM | 2.04 | 67 | lost | -67 | -2360 |
| 14.10.26 | G2 Ares – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 2.02 | 74 | lost | -74 | -2293 |
| 14.10.26 | PCIFIC – Ryvex | PCIFIC | 1.92 | 68 | won | +62 | -2219 |
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – Sashi | Sashi | 2.98 | 76 | lost | -76 | -2281 |
| 14.10.26 | HOTU – Astralis | Astralis | 2.35 | 67 | won | +90 | -2206 |
| 14.10.26 | Enjoy – B8 Academy | B8 Academy | 1.90 | 74 | lost | -74 | -2295 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 82 | lost | -82 | -2221 |
| 13.10.26 | Liquid – BBL | BBL | 2.11 | 91 | lost | -91 | -2139 |
| 12.10.26 | Sangal – Betclic | Betclic | 2.45 | 102 | lost | -102 | -2047 |
| 12.10.26 | BORRACHEIROS – Bounty Hunters | BORRACHEIROS | 2.09 | 113 | lost | -113 | -1946 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 93 | won | +197 | -1833 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | acidhouze | 2.45 | 81 | won | +118 | -2030 |
| 11.10.26 | Just Players – Misa | Misa | 2.55 | 90 | lost | -90 | -2148 |
| 10.10.26 | Lavked – Fortress | Fortress | 2.45 | 100 | lost | -100 | -2058 |
| 10.10.26 | Desi Boyz – EMPIRE | EMPIRE | 1.94 | 92 | won | +87 | -1957 |
| 10.10.26 | Grêmio – BORRACHEIROS | Grêmio | 1.98 | 102 | lost | -102 | -2044 |
| 09.10.26 | Misa – 6666 | 6666 | 2.07 | 92 | won | +99 | -1942 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Leo | 2.05 | 102 | lost | -102 | -2040 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Azuolas | 2.89 | 86 | won | +163 | -1938 |
| 09.10.26 | New Legends – Wanted Goons | Wanted Goons | 2.35 | 76 | won | +102 | -2101 |
| 08.10.26 | Leo – Privateer | Privateer | 3.78 | 84 | lost | -84 | -2203 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 76 | won | +81 | -2119 |
| 08.10.26 | CYBERSHOKE – Nexus | Nexus | 1.96 | 70 | won | +66 | -2200 |
| 08.10.26 | THE UNIT – The KnockoutX | THE UNIT | 1.95 | 77 | lost | -77 | -2267 |
| 08.10.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Banda Chuya | Banda Chuya | 1.96 | 86 | lost | -86 | -2190 |
| 08.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – Procyon | Procyon | 1.96 | 95 | lost | -95 | -2104 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 2.81 | 81 | won | +146 | -2008 |
| 07.10.26 | Lazer Cats – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 2.07 | 73 | won | +78 | -2155 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 64 | won | +89 | -2233 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Privateer | Privateer | 3.36 | 52 | won | +122 | -2322 |
| 07.10.26 | LFO 10 – MAYBE | MAYBE | 2.02 | 58 | lost | -58 | -2444 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – SINQU | SINQU | 2.85 | 64 | lost | -64 | -2387 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 2.38 | 56 | won | +78 | -2323 |
| 07.10.26 | PURE – SINQU | SINQU | 2.45 | 62 | lost | -62 | -2400 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | Gothic | 2.29 | 55 | won | +71 | -2338 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 61 | lost | -61 | -2409 |
| 06.10.26 | Spirit – 1win | 1win | 2.41 | 54 | won | +76 | -2348 |
| 05.10.26 | PARIVISION – FURIA | PARIVISION | 2.32 | 60 | lost | -60 | -2424 |
| 03.10.26 | Aurora – 9z | 9z | 2.27 | 66 | lost | -66 | -2364 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 74 | lost | -74 | -2297 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 82 | lost | -82 | -2224 |
| 02.10.26 | FOKUS – BBL | BBL | 2.09 | 74 | won | +81 | -2142 |
| 02.10.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Glitch | Glitch | 2.15 | 82 | lost | -82 | -2222 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 91 | lost | -91 | -2140 |
| 02.10.26 | Nexus – 6yuBoJlbl | 6yuBoJlbl | 2.24 | 81 | won | +101 | -2049 |
| 02.10.26 | Luminosity – BIG | BIG | 1.91 | 90 | lost | -90 | -2150 |
| 02.10.26 | Fire Flux – benched gods | benched gods | 2.15 | 100 | lost | -100 | -2060 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Sangal | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.09 | 111 | lost | -111 | -1960 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 102 | won | +95 | -1848 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 113 | lost | -113 | -1944 |
| 01.10.26 | FaZe – Nemiga | FaZe | 3.98 | 126 | lost | -126 | -1830 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 107 | won | +184 | -1705 |
| 01.10.26 | Yawara – BORRACHEIROS | Yawara | 1.91 | 98 | won | +89 | -1888 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | Famalicão | 1.94 | 90 | won | +85 | -1977 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 100 | lost | -100 | -2062 |
| 30.09.26 | PRIVATE – Nuclear TigeRES | PRIVATE | 2.59 | 17 | lost | -17 | -1962 |
| 29.09.26 | MAYBE – Illyrians | MAYBE | 2.40 | 15 | won | +22 | -1945 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 14 | won | +17 | -1966 |
| 29.09.26 | DEPO – PAQT | PAQT | 2.36 | 12 | won | +16 | -1983 |
| 28.09.26 | Leo – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.21 | 11 | won | +13 | -1999 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.