Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-85u
ROI
-1.7%
win rate
48%
bets
250
drawdown
27%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
2% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-11u
period 3top-up-8u
period 2top-up-25u
period 1top-up-41u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 250 | 48% | -15 | -0.6% | 12.5% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 250 | 48% | -29 | -1.2% | 13.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 250 | 48% | -85 | -1.7% | 27% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 250 | 48% | -398 | -3.4% | 73.3% | Select |
| Martingale | 17 | 35% | -1000 | -82.2% | 100% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 250 | 48% | -1267 | -6.3% | 159.2% | Selected |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 250, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | Lavked | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 915 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.17 | 20 | won | +23 | 935 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – Fortress | Fortress | 2.69 | 20 | lost | -20 | 912 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 2.29 | 20 | won | +25 | 932 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | FORZE Reload | 1.97 | 20 | lost | -20 | 907 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – BASEMENT BOYS | EAC | 2.17 | 20 | won | +23 | 927 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Keyd Stars | 2.20 | 20 | lost | -20 | 904 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | ROUNDS | 2.20 | 20 | lost | -20 | 924 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – OG | OG | 2.00 | 20 | won | +20 | 944 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | GUESS | 1.94 | 20 | won | +18 | 925 |
| 14.08.26 | Lavked – BASEMENT BOYS | Lavked | 2.43 | 19 | won | +27 | 906 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Lazer Cats | MOUZ NXT | 2.10 | 19 | won | +20 | 879 |
| 14.08.26 | Misa – Leo | Misa | 2.55 | 18 | won | +28 | 859 |
| 13.08.26 | Yawara – Keyd Stars | Keyd Stars | 1.94 | 18 | won | +17 | 830 |
| 13.08.26 | GamerLegion – JiJieHao | GamerLegion | 2.36 | 17 | won | +24 | 814 |
| 12.08.26 | Vitality – 100 Thieves | Vitality | 2.48 | 17 | won | +25 | 790 |
| 12.08.26 | Ground Zero – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 2.08 | 17 | lost | -17 | 765 |
| 09.08.26 | fnatic – K27 | K27 | 2.43 | 17 | won | +24 | 782 |
| 09.08.26 | Fluxo – fnatic | Fluxo | 2.13 | 17 | lost | -17 | 759 |
| 09.08.26 | Eternal Fire – BIG | BIG | 1.98 | 17 | won | +16 | 776 |
| 09.08.26 | 1win – Liquid | Liquid | 1.95 | 17 | lost | -17 | 759 |
| 08.08.26 | BORRACHEIROS – UNO MILLE | UNO MILLE | 1.93 | 17 | lost | -17 | 776 |
| 08.08.26 | GenOne – Galactik rebels | Galactik rebels | 2.72 | 18 | lost | -18 | 794 |
| 08.08.26 | Nexus – BRUTE | Nexus | 2.16 | 17 | won | +20 | 811 |
| 08.08.26 | REVENIX – levelONE | REVENIX | 1.90 | 18 | lost | -18 | 791 |
| 08.08.26 | Sangal – Zeste | Zeste | 1.91 | 18 | lost | -18 | 809 |
| 07.08.26 | fnatic – 6666 | 6666 | 3.20 | 18 | lost | -18 | 827 |
| 07.08.26 | Abyssal – Arcade | Abyssal | 2.00 | 18 | won | +18 | 845 |
| 07.08.26 | GenOne – lafox | lafox | 2.98 | 18 | lost | -18 | 827 |
| 06.08.26 | Imperial – ALKA | ALKA | 2.14 | 19 | lost | -19 | 846 |
| 05.08.26 | GamersLab – Jam | GamersLab | 2.11 | 19 | lost | -19 | 864 |
| 05.08.26 | Betclic – Liquid | Betclic | 1.90 | 19 | won | +17 | 884 |
| 04.08.26 | Liquid – 9INE | 9INE | 1.91 | 19 | lost | -19 | 867 |
| 04.08.26 | Nemiga – GenOne | Nemiga | 2.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 886 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 2.43 | 19 | won | +27 | 905 |
| 04.08.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Just Players | 2.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | 878 |
| 04.08.26 | Grêmio – paiN Academy | Grêmio | 1.89 | 19 | won | +17 | 897 |
| 03.08.26 | los kogutos – BASEMENT BOYS | los kogutos | 2.16 | 19 | lost | -19 | 881 |
| 03.08.26 | ARCRED – Butterfly | ARCRED | 2.05 | 20 | lost | -20 | 900 |
| 03.08.26 | Leo – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.49 | 20 | lost | -20 | 920 |
| 03.08.26 | Just Players – los kogutos | los kogutos | 2.28 | 20 | won | +25 | 940 |
| 02.08.26 | Mai Tai – BASEMENT BOYS | Mai Tai | 2.44 | 20 | lost | -20 | 915 |
| 02.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fire Flux | Bushido Wildcats | 1.99 | 20 | won | +20 | 935 |
| 02.08.26 | Leo – Vexar | Vexar | 2.04 | 20 | lost | -20 | 915 |
| 02.08.26 | Spirit – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.23 | 20 | won | +24 | 936 |
| 01.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – SPARTA | SPARTA | 2.18 | 19 | won | +23 | 911 |
| 01.08.26 | THE UNIT – Trouble makers | Trouble makers | 1.90 | 20 | lost | -20 | 889 |
| 01.08.26 | FaZe – Spirit | FaZe | 2.28 | 20 | lost | -20 | 908 |
| 01.08.26 | RayRay – ALTAY | ALTAY | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 928 |
| 01.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Butterfly | Black Phoenix | 2.11 | 20 | won | +22 | 949 |
| 31.07.26 | JiJieHao – Black Phoenix | Black Phoenix | 1.90 | 19 | won | +17 | 927 |
| 31.07.26 | GenOne – Enjoy | Enjoy | 2.06 | 20 | lost | -20 | 909 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 2.67 | 19 | won | +32 | 929 |
| 31.07.26 | FaZe – The MongolZ | The MongolZ | 1.98 | 20 | lost | -20 | 897 |
| 31.07.26 | UNiTY – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 1.92 | 20 | lost | -20 | 917 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – XCLAN | XCLAN | 2.54 | 20 | lost | -20 | 937 |
| 31.07.26 | regain – Chicken Coop | regain | 2.22 | 20 | won | +24 | 957 |
| 31.07.26 | BESTIA – Galorys | BESTIA | 1.93 | 20 | won | +18 | 933 |
| 30.07.26 | KUUSAMO – BOJONG | KUUSAMO | 2.02 | 19 | won | +20 | 915 |
| 30.07.26 | 1win – los kogutos | los kogutos | 2.37 | 20 | lost | -20 | 895 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.