Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-542u
ROI
-5.2%
win rate
45%
bets
548
drawdown
64.1%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
2% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-41u
period 6top-up-210u
period 5profit withdrawn+46u
period 4top-up-135u
period 3top-up-141u
period 2top-up-51u
period 1top-up-11u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat (10 units) | 548 | 45% | -232 | -4.2% | 30.7% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 548 | 45% | -253 | -4.7% | 32.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 548 | 45% | -542 | -5.2% | 64.1% | Select |
| Martingale | 51 | 47% | -884 | -42.3% | 90.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 548 | 45% | -1556 | -6.6% | 152.4% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 548 | 45% | -3360 | -8.6% | 260.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 548, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | FURIA – BETBOOM | BETBOOM | 2.04 | 20 | lost | -20 | 458 |
| 14.10.26 | G2 Ares – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 2.02 | 20 | lost | -20 | 478 |
| 14.10.26 | PCIFIC – Ryvex | PCIFIC | 1.92 | 20 | won | +18 | 498 |
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – Sashi | Sashi | 2.98 | 20 | lost | -20 | 480 |
| 14.10.26 | HOTU – Astralis | Astralis | 2.35 | 19 | won | +26 | 500 |
| 14.10.26 | Enjoy – B8 Academy | B8 Academy | 1.90 | 20 | lost | -20 | 474 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 20 | lost | -20 | 493 |
| 13.10.26 | Liquid – BBL | BBL | 2.11 | 21 | lost | -21 | 514 |
| 12.10.26 | Sangal – Betclic | Betclic | 2.45 | 21 | lost | -21 | 534 |
| 12.10.26 | BORRACHEIROS – Bounty Hunters | BORRACHEIROS | 2.09 | 22 | lost | -22 | 556 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 21 | won | +44 | 577 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | acidhouze | 2.45 | 20 | won | +29 | 533 |
| 11.10.26 | Just Players – Misa | Misa | 2.55 | 21 | lost | -21 | 504 |
| 10.10.26 | Lavked – Fortress | Fortress | 2.45 | 21 | lost | -21 | 525 |
| 10.10.26 | Desi Boyz – EMPIRE | EMPIRE | 1.94 | 21 | won | +19 | 546 |
| 10.10.26 | Grêmio – BORRACHEIROS | Grêmio | 1.98 | 21 | lost | -21 | 526 |
| 09.10.26 | Misa – 6666 | 6666 | 2.07 | 21 | won | +22 | 547 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Leo | 2.05 | 21 | lost | -21 | 525 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Azuolas | 2.89 | 20 | won | +38 | 546 |
| 09.10.26 | New Legends – Wanted Goons | Wanted Goons | 2.35 | 20 | won | +26 | 508 |
| 08.10.26 | Leo – Privateer | Privateer | 3.78 | 20 | lost | -20 | 481 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 20 | won | +21 | 502 |
| 08.10.26 | CYBERSHOKE – Nexus | Nexus | 1.96 | 19 | won | +18 | 481 |
| 08.10.26 | THE UNIT – The KnockoutX | THE UNIT | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 462 |
| 08.10.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Banda Chuya | Banda Chuya | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 482 |
| 08.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – Procyon | Procyon | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 502 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 2.81 | 20 | won | +36 | 522 |
| 07.10.26 | Lazer Cats – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 2.07 | 19 | won | +21 | 487 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 19 | won | +26 | 466 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Privateer | Privateer | 3.36 | 18 | won | +42 | 440 |
| 07.10.26 | LFO 10 – MAYBE | MAYBE | 2.02 | 18 | lost | -18 | 397 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – SINQU | SINQU | 2.85 | 19 | lost | -19 | 415 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 2.38 | 18 | won | +25 | 434 |
| 07.10.26 | PURE – SINQU | SINQU | 2.45 | 19 | lost | -19 | 409 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | Gothic | 2.29 | 18 | won | +23 | 428 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 18 | lost | -18 | 404 |
| 06.10.26 | Spirit – 1win | 1win | 2.41 | 18 | won | +25 | 423 |
| 05.10.26 | PARIVISION – FURIA | PARIVISION | 2.32 | 18 | lost | -18 | 397 |
| 03.10.26 | Aurora – 9z | 9z | 2.27 | 19 | lost | -19 | 416 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 19 | lost | -19 | 435 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 19 | lost | -19 | 454 |
| 02.10.26 | FOKUS – BBL | BBL | 2.09 | 19 | won | +21 | 473 |
| 02.10.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Glitch | Glitch | 2.15 | 19 | lost | -19 | 452 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 20 | lost | -20 | 472 |
| 02.10.26 | Nexus – 6yuBoJlbl | 6yuBoJlbl | 2.24 | 19 | won | +24 | 492 |
| 02.10.26 | Luminosity – BIG | BIG | 1.91 | 20 | lost | -20 | 467 |
| 02.10.26 | Fire Flux – benched gods | benched gods | 2.15 | 20 | lost | -20 | 487 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Sangal | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.09 | 21 | lost | -21 | 507 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 20 | won | +19 | 528 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 21 | lost | -21 | 509 |
| 01.10.26 | FaZe – Nemiga | FaZe | 3.98 | 21 | lost | -21 | 530 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 20 | won | +35 | 551 |
| 01.10.26 | Yawara – BORRACHEIROS | Yawara | 1.91 | 20 | won | +18 | 516 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | Famalicão | 1.94 | 20 | won | +18 | 498 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 20 | lost | -20 | 479 |
| 30.09.26 | PRIVATE – Nuclear TigeRES | PRIVATE | 2.59 | 16 | lost | -16 | 499 |
| 29.09.26 | MAYBE – Illyrians | MAYBE | 2.40 | 16 | won | +22 | 515 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 15 | won | +19 | 493 |
| 29.09.26 | DEPO – PAQT | PAQT | 2.36 | 15 | won | +20 | 475 |
| 28.09.26 | Leo – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.21 | 15 | won | +18 | 454 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.