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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-634u
ROI
-4.6%
win rate
45%
bets
1371
drawdown
76.9%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-5u
period 6top-up-130u
period 5top-up-14u
period 4profit withdrawn+18u
period 3top-up-197u
period 2top-up-215u
period 1top-up-90u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)137145%-634-4.6%76.9%Select
1% of bankroll137145%-654-5.1%74.6%Select
Martingale8741%-846-25.3%88%Select
2% of bankroll137145%-1329-5.7%143.4%Select
5% of bankroll137145%-3263-7.5%335.5%Select
10% of bankroll137145%-5505-10.9%558.8%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1371, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.9010lost-10366
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0110lost-10376
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2910won+13386
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1110lost-10373
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0410won+10383
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.1110lost-10373
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.9910lost-10383
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9610lost-10393
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.9610won+10403
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6110lost-10393
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1210won+21403
11.10.26XI – ASTRALXI2.2010won+12382
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9710lost-10370
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4510won+15380
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.9210won+9366
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.9510won+10356
10.10.26Holy Cannoli – Unreal NightmareUnreal Nightmare2.1710won+12347
10.10.26Wildcard – Last Dance USLast Dance US2.1310lost-10335
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.0910lost-10345
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5110lost-10355
10.10.26WBT Academy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners2.1010won+11365
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.7010lost-10354
10.10.26Desi Boyz – EMPIREEMPIRE1.9410won+9364
10.10.26regain – VillainousVillainous2.2610lost-10355
10.10.26Grêmio – BORRACHEIROSGrêmio1.9810lost-10365
10.10.26Isurus – ProcyonIsurus2.0810lost-10375
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.2910lost-10385
09.10.26Saint Sinners – Just PlayersSaint Sinners2.3510lost-10395
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.3410lost-10405
09.10.26WBT Academy – SAW YoungstersSAW Youngsters2.4710won+15415
09.10.26BORING PLAYERS – Chinggis WarriorsBORING PLAYERS2.1310lost-10400
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.2410won+12410
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.7010lost-10398
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.0510lost-10408
09.10.26Azuolas – EnjoyAzuolas2.8910won+19418
09.10.26regain – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.9710won+10399
09.10.26Grêmio – YawaraGrêmio2.0510lost-10389
09.10.26LP – Turma do PagodeLP2.2910won+13399
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.9910won+10386
08.10.26SINNERS – Black PhoenixSINNERS1.9710lost-10376
08.10.26FaZe – SangalFaZe2.5810won+16386
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0710won+11370
08.10.26EAC – PUREEAC2.1210lost-10360
08.10.26Azuolas – MisaAzuolas2.4310lost-10370
08.10.26Alter Ego – KaleidoKaleido2.2010won+12380
08.10.26THE UNIT – The KnockoutXTHE UNIT1.9510lost-10368
08.10.26The Last Resort – PrivateerPrivateer2.8110won+18378
08.10.26HYPERSPIRIT – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya1.9610lost-10360
08.10.26Azuolas – Noir VerseAzuolas2.5310lost-10370
08.10.26OG – SangalOG2.2410lost-10380
08.10.26Banda Chuya – IllyriansBanda Chuya2.1910lost-10390
08.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ColorNuclear TigeRES2.0210won+10400
08.10.26Marsborne – Without a RoofWithout a Roof2.0410won+10389
08.10.26Galorys – GrêmioGrêmio2.9410won+19379
08.10.26METANOIA Wolves – LPMETANOIA Wolves3.1310lost-10360
08.10.26BESTIA Academy – ALKAALKA1.9010won+9370
07.10.26Famalicão – Lazer CatsFamalicão2.5510lost-10361
07.10.26Sangal – SAWSAW2.0910lost-10371
07.10.26Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTECIberian Soul2.4010won+14381
07.10.26BERG – LeoBERG3.0810lost-10367
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.