Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
+1293u
ROI
+2.4%
win rate
47%
bets
627
drawdown
206.5%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-855u
period 3profit withdrawn+3876u
period 2top-up-935u
period 1top-up-792u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 627 | 47% | +1293 | +2.4% | 206.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 627 | 47% | +159 | +0.6% | 138.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 627 | 47% | -97 | -1.6% | 35.6% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 627 | 47% | -126 | -2% | 36.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 627 | 47% | -131 | -1.1% | 67% | Select |
| Martingale | 260 | 46% | -344 | -3.1% | 69.3% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 627, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | The Last Resort – Privateer | Privateer | 2.19 | 16 | lost | -16 | 2293 |
| 20.08.26 | Ryvex – Coalesce | Coalesce | 1.89 | 18 | lost | -18 | 2309 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – Metizport | Metizport | 1.95 | 16 | won | +16 | 2327 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | mellren | 2.46 | 14 | won | +21 | 2312 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | LPH | 2.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | 2291 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | Vitality | 2.15 | 14 | won | +16 | 2307 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | The MongolZ | 2.49 | 16 | lost | -16 | 2290 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Legacy | 1.90 | 14 | won | +13 | 2306 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | Lavked | 1.93 | 16 | lost | -16 | 2293 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 2.03 | 15 | won | +15 | 2309 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | Color | 2.01 | 13 | won | +13 | 2294 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | FUT | 1.98 | 12 | won | +12 | 2281 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.17 | 11 | won | +13 | 2269 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | Noir Verse | 2.21 | 10 | won | +12 | 2256 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Raccoons | 1.95 | 9 | won | +8 | 2245 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | Misa | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2236 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | Permitta | 2.01 | 11 | lost | -11 | 2246 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.96 | 12 | lost | -12 | 2257 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | UNiTY | 2.56 | 13 | lost | -13 | 2269 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | HAVU | 1.96 | 12 | won | +12 | 2282 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | OG | 2.06 | 11 | won | +12 | 2271 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | Entropy | 2.11 | 12 | lost | -12 | 2259 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | Leo | 2.01 | 14 | lost | -14 | 2271 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 2.29 | 12 | won | +16 | 2285 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | Bebop | 2.01 | 13 | lost | -13 | 2269 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 2.46 | 15 | lost | -15 | 2283 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Permitta | Permitta | 2.77 | 17 | lost | -17 | 2298 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | FORZE Reload | 1.97 | 18 | lost | -18 | 2314 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 2.05 | 17 | won | +17 | 2333 |
| 17.08.26 | Raccoons – Fire Flux | Raccoons | 1.89 | 15 | won | +14 | 2315 |
| 17.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-RUSTEC | Noir Verse | 2.20 | 17 | lost | -17 | 2301 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | benched gods | 2.03 | 15 | won | +16 | 2319 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | DragonClaw | 2.72 | 17 | lost | -17 | 2303 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | DragonClaw | 2.15 | 19 | lost | -19 | 2320 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 1.97 | 17 | won | +17 | 2339 |
| 16.08.26 | Mai Tai – BERG | Mai Tai | 2.50 | 15 | won | +23 | 2322 |
| 16.08.26 | magic – 9z | magic | 1.95 | 14 | won | +13 | 2299 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.21 | 15 | lost | -15 | 2286 |
| 16.08.26 | Nexus – Bushido Wildcats | Nexus | 2.40 | 17 | lost | -17 | 2302 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-Sashi Academy | Noir Verse | 1.94 | 16 | won | +15 | 2319 |
| 15.08.26 | Lavked – OG | Lavked | 2.06 | 14 | won | +15 | 2304 |
| 15.08.26 | Privateer – Phantom Academy | Privateer | 2.03 | 16 | lost | -16 | 2289 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Misa | 2.29 | 14 | won | +18 | 2305 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | GUESS | 1.94 | 13 | won | +12 | 2287 |
| 15.08.26 | Misa – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 2.06 | 14 | lost | -14 | 2275 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | METANOIA Wolves | 2.49 | 12 | won | +18 | 2289 |
| 15.08.26 | BESTIA – ALKA | ALKA | 2.04 | 14 | lost | -14 | 2271 |
| 14.08.26 | Lavked – BASEMENT BOYS | Lavked | 2.39 | 12 | won | +17 | 2284 |
| 14.08.26 | K27 – MIBR | MIBR | 2.00 | 11 | won | +11 | 2268 |
| 14.08.26 | OG – BAKS | OG | 1.97 | 12 | lost | -12 | 2257 |
| 14.08.26 | Privateer – Fire Flux | Privateer | 2.23 | 13 | lost | -13 | 2269 |
| 14.08.26 | Just Players – ENCE | ENCE | 1.95 | 12 | won | +12 | 2282 |
| 14.08.26 | eternal premium – Privateer | eternal premium | 1.96 | 11 | won | +11 | 2271 |
| 14.08.26 | FUT – MOUZ | FUT | 2.30 | 10 | won | +13 | 2260 |
| 14.08.26 | TYLOO – Lynn Vision | Lynn Vision | 1.98 | 9 | won | +9 | 2247 |
| 14.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Bebop | Bebop | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2238 |
| 14.08.26 | Pugdesonesto – ALKA | Pugdesonesto | 2.09 | 11 | lost | -11 | 2248 |
| 14.08.26 | Imperial – Isurus | Isurus | 2.08 | 12 | lost | -12 | 2259 |
| 13.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 2.08 | 14 | lost | -14 | 2272 |
| 13.08.26 | BERG – Endless Journey | BERG | 2.16 | 12 | won | +14 | 2286 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.