Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-686u
ROI
-12.2%
win rate
43%
bets
620
drawdown
73.8%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-164u
period 3top-up-172u
period 2top-up-282u
period 1top-up-68u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 620 | 43% | -686 | -12.2% | 73.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 620 | 43% | -737 | -11.9% | 78.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 620 | 43% | -1277 | -12.3% | 123.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 156 | 46% | -1300 | -16.8% | 119.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 620 | 43% | -2559 | -12.4% | 190.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 620 | 43% | -3578 | -11.1% | 199.4% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 620, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | Lavked | 1.96 | 8 | lost | -8 | 314 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | LPH | 2.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | 322 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.17 | 9 | lost | -9 | 331 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 Ares – Bebop | Bebop | 1.98 | 9 | lost | -9 | 339 |
| 20.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Raccoons | Raccoons | 2.35 | 9 | lost | -9 | 348 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 1.98 | 9 | won | +9 | 357 |
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.99 | 9 | won | +9 | 348 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | Astralis | 2.06 | 9 | lost | -9 | 340 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.17 | 9 | won | +10 | 348 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Lavked | 2.17 | 9 | won | +10 | 338 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | Misa | 2.19 | 9 | lost | -9 | 328 |
| 19.08.26 | Mai Tai – Honvéd | Mai Tai | 2.57 | 9 | lost | -9 | 337 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | MOUZ NXT | 2.05 | 9 | lost | -9 | 346 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.93 | 9 | lost | -9 | 354 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Misa | 2.09 | 9 | won | +10 | 363 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | HAVU | 1.94 | 9 | won | +8 | 354 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.97 | 9 | lost | -9 | 346 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Misa | 2.06 | 9 | lost | -9 | 354 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 2.29 | 9 | won | +11 | 363 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | MOUZ NXT | 1.98 | 9 | lost | -9 | 352 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.41 | 9 | won | +12 | 361 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Entropy | 1.92 | 9 | lost | -9 | 348 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – ex-MANA | Fortress | 2.03 | 9 | lost | -9 | 357 |
| 18.08.26 | PCIFIC – Just Players | Just Players | 1.91 | 9 | won | +8 | 366 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.85 | 9 | lost | -9 | 358 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 2.05 | 9 | won | +9 | 367 |
| 17.08.26 | Atreides – ex-Sashi Academy | Atreides | 2.06 | 9 | lost | -9 | 358 |
| 17.08.26 | Permitta – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.95 | 9 | won | +8 | 367 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | Legacy | 2.02 | 9 | won | +9 | 358 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 1.97 | 9 | won | +8 | 349 |
| 16.08.26 | Astralis – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Astralis | 1.93 | 9 | won | +8 | 341 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.21 | 9 | lost | -9 | 333 |
| 16.08.26 | Nexus – Bushido Wildcats | Nexus | 2.41 | 9 | lost | -9 | 342 |
| 16.08.26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA – METANOIA Wolves | METANOIA Wolves | 2.58 | 9 | lost | -9 | 350 |
| 15.08.26 | INOX Division – Misa | Misa | 2.71 | 9 | lost | -9 | 359 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-Sashi Academy | Noir Verse | 1.94 | 9 | won | +8 | 368 |
| 15.08.26 | FURIA – 9z | FURIA | 2.04 | 9 | won | +9 | 360 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Misa | 2.28 | 9 | won | +11 | 351 |
| 15.08.26 | Atreides – LPH | Atreides | 2.39 | 9 | lost | -9 | 340 |
| 15.08.26 | Honvéd – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.33 | 9 | won | +11 | 348 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ENCE | MOUZ NXT | 2.15 | 8 | won | +10 | 337 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – NEW VISION | NEW VISION | 2.46 | 8 | won | +12 | 327 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 1.93 | 8 | lost | -8 | 315 |
| 14.08.26 | SINQU – Phantom Academy | SINQU | 1.98 | 8 | won | +8 | 324 |
| 14.08.26 | PARIVISION – 100 Thieves | PARIVISION | 2.32 | 8 | won | +11 | 315 |
| 14.08.26 | Just Players – ENCE | ENCE | 1.95 | 8 | won | +8 | 304 |
| 14.08.26 | Leo – benched gods | benched gods | 2.06 | 8 | lost | -8 | 297 |
| 14.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.96 | 8 | lost | -8 | 305 |
| 14.08.26 | Misa – Leo | Misa | 2.55 | 8 | won | +13 | 313 |
| 14.08.26 | INOX Division – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 2.61 | 8 | lost | -8 | 300 |
| 14.08.26 | NEW VISION – Arch | NEW VISION | 2.35 | 8 | won | +11 | 309 |
| 14.08.26 | Enjoy – Misa | Misa | 2.59 | 8 | lost | -8 | 298 |
| 13.08.26 | ENCE – Enjoy | ENCE | 2.02 | 8 | lost | -8 | 306 |
| 13.08.26 | Luminosity – Spirit | Luminosity | 2.99 | 8 | lost | -8 | 314 |
| 12.08.26 | Wildcard – FURIA | Wildcard | 2.03 | 9 | lost | -9 | 323 |
| 12.08.26 | BetBoom – FaZe | FaZe | 1.99 | 8 | won | +8 | 331 |
| 12.08.26 | Vexar – Raccoons | Vexar | 1.89 | 9 | lost | -9 | 323 |
| 12.08.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Legacy | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.92 | 9 | lost | -9 | 331 |
| 12.08.26 | Luminosity – GamerLegion | Luminosity | 1.97 | 9 | lost | -9 | 340 |
| 12.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 2.63 | 9 | lost | -9 | 349 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.