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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-751u
ROI
-5.5%
win rate
44%
bets
1372
drawdown
75.4%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-76u
period 6top-up-292u
period 5top-up-87u
period 4profit withdrawn+3u
period 3top-up-84u
period 2top-up-122u
period 1top-up-93u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)137244%-751-5.5%75.4%Select
1% of bankroll137244%-760-6%76.3%Select
Martingale8741%-836-21.8%86.9%Select
2% of bankroll137244%-1519-6.6%150.8%Select
5% of bankroll137244%-3567-8.4%345.6%Select
10% of bankroll137244%-5761-11.5%537.3%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1372, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5710lost-10249
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.9010lost-10259
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0110lost-10269
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2910won+13279
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1110lost-10266
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0410won+10276
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.9910lost-10266
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.9910lost-10276
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9610lost-10286
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.9610won+10296
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6110lost-10286
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1210won+21296
11.10.26antidaun – Saint Sinnersantidaun1.9710lost-10275
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9710lost-10285
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4510won+15295
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.5510lost-10280
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.9510won+10290
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.3710lost-10281
10.10.26Wildcard – Last Dance USLast Dance US2.1310lost-10291
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.0910lost-10301
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5110lost-10311
10.10.26Lavked – FortressFortress2.4510lost-10321
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.7010lost-10331
10.10.26Ground Zero – KZGKZG2.3810lost-10341
10.10.26regain – VillainousVillainous2.2610lost-10351
10.10.26Galorys – Turma do PagodeGalorys1.9010won+9361
10.10.26Grêmio – BORRACHEIROSGrêmio1.9810lost-10352
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.2910lost-10362
09.10.26Iberian Soul – Noir VerseNoir Verse1.9310lost-10372
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.3410lost-10382
09.10.26WBT Academy – SAW YoungstersSAW Youngsters2.4710won+15392
09.10.26BORING PLAYERS – Chinggis WarriorsBORING PLAYERS2.1310lost-10377
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.2410won+12387
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.7010lost-10375
09.10.26Azuolas – EnjoyAzuolas2.8910won+19385
09.10.26mellren – BebopBebop3.0810won+21366
09.10.26Club 333 – OverKnightOverKnight1.9210lost-10345
09.10.26Isurus – ex-Keyd Starsex-Keyd Stars1.9310won+9355
09.10.26MEIA NOITE – QUINTESSÊNCIAMEIA NOITE2.1810won+12346
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.9910won+10334
08.10.26MOUZ NXT – HYPERSPIRITMOUZ NXT1.9510won+10324
08.10.26Lilmix – Fire FluxLilmix4.1010lost-10315
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0710won+11325
08.10.26Azuolas – MisaAzuolas2.4310lost-10314
08.10.26CYBERSHOKE – NexusNexus1.9610won+10324
08.10.26Rare Atom – Just SwingJust Swing2.3710won+14314
08.10.26Legion – NasLegion2.2910lost-10301
08.10.26The Last Resort – PrivateerPrivateer2.8110won+18311
08.10.26THE UNIT – The KnockoutXTHE UNIT1.9510lost-10293
08.10.26Azuolas – Noir VerseAzuolas2.5310lost-10303
08.10.26G2 Ares – RBLSG2 Ares2.0510won+10313
08.10.26Lavked – FortressFortress2.5110lost-10302
08.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ColorNuclear TigeRES2.0210won+10312
08.10.26Reign Above – Overtake SectorReign Above1.9310lost-10302
08.10.26BESTIA Academy – ALKAALKA1.9010won+9312
08.10.26Turma do Pagode – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.6910lost-10303
08.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd Starsex-Keyd Stars2.0410won+10313
07.10.26SAW – RBLSRBLS2.2510won+12302
07.10.26Sangal – SAWSAW2.0910lost-10290
07.10.26Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTECIberian Soul2.4010won+14300
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.