Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
+34u
ROI
+0.3%
win rate
49%
bets
617
drawdown
46.1%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
2% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-310u
period 3profit withdrawn+78u
period 2top-up-101u
period 1profit withdrawn+366u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2% of bankroll | 617 | 49% | +34 | +0.3% | 46.1% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 617 | 49% | +30 | +0.1% | 66.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 617 | 49% | +22 | +0.4% | 30.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 617 | 49% | +20 | +0.3% | 29.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 617 | 49% | -247 | -0.4% | 86.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 193 | 54% | -460 | -6.1% | 69.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 617, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | Vitality | 2.14 | 13 | won | +15 | 1034 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | B8 | 2.38 | 14 | lost | -14 | 1018 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | Lavked | 1.95 | 14 | lost | -14 | 1032 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.16 | 14 | lost | -14 | 1046 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 2.02 | 14 | won | +14 | 1060 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | The Last Resort | 1.98 | 14 | lost | -14 | 1046 |
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.99 | 14 | won | +14 | 1060 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | Color | 2.01 | 14 | won | +14 | 1046 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 2.02 | 14 | won | +14 | 1033 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | Astralis | 2.06 | 14 | lost | -14 | 1019 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Entropy | 2.16 | 14 | lost | -14 | 1033 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | MOUZ NXT | 2.05 | 14 | lost | -14 | 1047 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Raccoons | 1.95 | 14 | won | +13 | 1061 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.93 | 14 | lost | -14 | 1048 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Entropy | Entropy | 2.68 | 14 | won | +23 | 1062 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | Entropy | 2.11 | 14 | lost | -14 | 1039 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | Leo | 2.01 | 14 | lost | -14 | 1053 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 15 | lost | -15 | 1067 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 2.29 | 14 | won | +19 | 1082 |
| 18.08.26 | Strael Bora – The Last Resort | Strael Bora | 1.91 | 15 | lost | -15 | 1063 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.13 | 15 | lost | -15 | 1078 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – ex-MANA | Fortress | 2.03 | 15 | lost | -15 | 1093 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Entropy | 1.92 | 16 | lost | -16 | 1108 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.86 | 16 | lost | -16 | 1124 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 2.05 | 16 | won | +16 | 1140 |
| 17.08.26 | Atreides – ex-Sashi Academy | Atreides | 2.06 | 16 | lost | -16 | 1124 |
| 17.08.26 | Permitta – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.95 | 16 | won | +15 | 1140 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.96 | 16 | lost | -16 | 1125 |
| 16.08.26 | G2 Ares – Permitta | G2 Ares | 1.95 | 16 | lost | -16 | 1141 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | Lavked | 1.97 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1157 |
| 16.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fortress | Fortress | 3.32 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1174 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | HAVU | 2.19 | 17 | won | +20 | 1191 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | paiN Academy | 2.18 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1171 |
| 15.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Galorys | Keyd Stars | 1.92 | 17 | won | +15 | 1188 |
| 15.08.26 | JiJieHao – Aurora | JiJieHao | 1.98 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1172 |
| 15.08.26 | magic – 3DMAX | 3DMAX | 2.43 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1189 |
| 15.08.26 | FURIA – 9z | FURIA | 2.07 | 17 | won | +18 | 1207 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Misa | 2.28 | 16 | won | +21 | 1188 |
| 15.08.26 | SINQU – BASEMENT BOYS | SINQU | 2.11 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1167 |
| 15.08.26 | Atreides – LPH | Atreides | 2.39 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1184 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ENCE | MOUZ NXT | 2.16 | 17 | won | +19 | 1201 |
| 15.08.26 | Misa – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 2.07 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1182 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | METANOIA Wolves | 2.52 | 17 | won | +25 | 1199 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 1.93 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1174 |
| 14.08.26 | Mai Tai – UNiTY | Mai Tai | 2.34 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1191 |
| 14.08.26 | The Last Resort – Honvéd | Honvéd | 2.10 | 17 | won | +19 | 1208 |
| 14.08.26 | EAC – benched gods | EAC | 2.09 | 17 | won | +18 | 1189 |
| 14.08.26 | B8 – Vitality | Vitality | 1.92 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1171 |
| 14.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.96 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1188 |
| 14.08.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetBoom | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.14 | 17 | won | +19 | 1205 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Astralis | 2.44 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1186 |
| 13.08.26 | The Last Resort – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.01 | 17 | won | +17 | 1203 |
| 13.08.26 | ex-MANA – SAW Youngsters | ex-MANA | 1.94 | 17 | won | +16 | 1186 |
| 12.08.26 | Vitality – 100 Thieves | Vitality | 2.48 | 16 | won | +24 | 1171 |
| 12.08.26 | Endless Journey – HAVU | HAVU | 2.60 | 16 | won | +25 | 1147 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | K27 | 2.03 | 16 | lost | -16 | 1122 |
| 12.08.26 | magic – The MongolZ | The MongolZ | 2.07 | 16 | won | +17 | 1138 |
| 12.08.26 | FUT – TYLOO | FUT | 2.02 | 15 | won | +16 | 1121 |
| 12.08.26 | DONSTU – FORZE Reload | DONSTU | 2.10 | 16 | lost | -16 | 1106 |
| 11.08.26 | Isurus – Grêmio | Grêmio | 2.27 | 16 | lost | -16 | 1121 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.