Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-199u
ROI
-3.2%
win rate
47%
bets
618
drawdown
35.5%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Flat (10 units)
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-83u
period 3top-up-50u
period 2top-up-114u
period 1profit withdrawn+48u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 552 | 47% | +760 | +3.6% | 55.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 618 | 47% | -199 | -3.2% | 35.5% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 618 | 47% | -218 | -3.6% | 35.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 618 | 47% | -468 | -4.1% | 64.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 618 | 47% | -1322 | -5.3% | 132% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 618 | 47% | -2637 | -6.9% | 213.7% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 618, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Metizport – Color | Metizport | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 801 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Legacy | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 792 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | The MongolZ | 2.49 | 10 | lost | -10 | 783 |
| 20.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Raccoons | Raccoons | 2.35 | 10 | lost | -10 | 793 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 1.98 | 10 | won | +10 | 803 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | Color | 2.01 | 10 | won | +10 | 793 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | FUT | 1.98 | 10 | won | +10 | 783 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Black Phoenix | 2.78 | 10 | won | +18 | 774 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – EAC | Permitta | 2.09 | 10 | lost | -10 | 756 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Lavked | 2.17 | 10 | won | +12 | 766 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | Misa | 2.19 | 10 | lost | -10 | 754 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 Ares – ex-Zero Tenacity | G2 Ares | 2.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 764 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | UNiTY | 2.54 | 10 | lost | -10 | 774 |
| 19.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Endless Journey | Endless Journey | 2.73 | 10 | lost | -10 | 784 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | Metizport | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 794 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.01 | 10 | won | +10 | 785 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | OG | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 775 |
| 18.08.26 | Strael Bora – The Last Resort | Strael Bora | 1.91 | 10 | lost | -10 | 766 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 2.29 | 10 | won | +13 | 776 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.41 | 10 | won | +14 | 763 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | Bebop | 2.05 | 10 | lost | -10 | 749 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Entropy | 1.92 | 10 | lost | -10 | 759 |
| 17.08.26 | Enjoy – HAVU | HAVU | 2.66 | 10 | won | +17 | 769 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | FORZE Reload | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 752 |
| 17.08.26 | NEW VISION – Vexar | NEW VISION | 2.10 | 10 | lost | -10 | 762 |
| 17.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Inner Circle Academy | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 772 |
| 17.08.26 | paiN Academy – QUINTESSÊNCIA | paiN Academy | 2.16 | 10 | lost | -10 | 762 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | Legacy | 2.02 | 10 | won | +10 | 772 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Keyd Stars | 2.21 | 10 | lost | -10 | 762 |
| 16.08.26 | INOX Division – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 2.21 | 10 | won | +12 | 772 |
| 16.08.26 | FORZE Reload – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.08 | 10 | lost | -10 | 760 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-MANA – ex-RUSTEC | ex-MANA | 2.35 | 10 | lost | -10 | 770 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | paiN Academy | 2.18 | 10 | lost | -10 | 780 |
| 15.08.26 | BAKS – BASEMENT BOYS | BAKS | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 790 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-Sashi Academy | Noir Verse | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 800 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.98 | 10 | won | +10 | 791 |
| 15.08.26 | SINQU – BASEMENT BOYS | SINQU | 2.11 | 10 | lost | -10 | 781 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – OG | OG | 2.00 | 10 | won | +10 | 791 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | GUESS | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 781 |
| 15.08.26 | The MongolZ – Natus Vincere | The MongolZ | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 772 |
| 15.08.26 | BESTIA – ALKA | ALKA | 2.04 | 10 | lost | -10 | 782 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – Entropy | Noir Verse | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 792 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 1.93 | 10 | lost | -10 | 782 |
| 14.08.26 | Lavked – BASEMENT BOYS | Lavked | 2.43 | 10 | won | +14 | 792 |
| 14.08.26 | INOX Division – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 2.67 | 10 | lost | -10 | 778 |
| 14.08.26 | FUT – MOUZ | FUT | 2.30 | 10 | won | +13 | 788 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Lazer Cats | MOUZ NXT | 2.10 | 10 | won | +11 | 775 |
| 14.08.26 | Misa – Leo | Misa | 2.55 | 10 | won | +16 | 764 |
| 14.08.26 | OG – Privateer | Privateer | 1.92 | 10 | lost | -10 | 748 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Enjoy | MOUZ NXT | 2.44 | 10 | lost | -10 | 758 |
| 14.08.26 | Pugdesonesto – ALKA | Pugdesonesto | 2.09 | 10 | lost | -10 | 768 |
| 13.08.26 | BERG – Endless Journey | BERG | 2.16 | 10 | won | +12 | 778 |
| 12.08.26 | 9z – paiN | paiN | 2.29 | 10 | lost | -10 | 767 |
| 12.08.26 | train launcher – benched gods | benched gods | 1.97 | 10 | won | +10 | 777 |
| 12.08.26 | BetBoom – FaZe | FaZe | 1.99 | 10 | won | +10 | 767 |
| 12.08.26 | PARIVISION – B8 | B8 | 1.93 | 10 | won | +9 | 757 |
| 12.08.26 | Spirit – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 2.23 | 10 | won | +12 | 748 |
| 12.08.26 | Luminosity – GamerLegion | Luminosity | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 735 |
| 11.08.26 | Abyssal – Ground Zero | Abyssal | 2.24 | 10 | won | +12 | 745 |
| 10.08.26 | BORRACHEIROS – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 2.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 733 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.