Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-243u
ROI
-3.9%
win rate
47%
bets
618
drawdown
37.4%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Flat (10 units)
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+27u
period 3top-up-98u
period 2top-up-179u
period 1profit withdrawn+7u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 618 | 47% | -243 | -3.9% | 37.4% | Selected |
| 1% of bankroll | 618 | 47% | -253 | -4.3% | 36% | Select |
| Martingale | 214 | 50% | -344 | -5.4% | 66.1% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 618 | 47% | -524 | -4.7% | 68.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 618 | 47% | -1379 | -5.9% | 157.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 618 | 47% | -2663 | -8.1% | 253.3% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 618, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | mellren | 2.46 | 10 | won | +15 | 757 |
| 20.08.26 | Metizport – Color | Metizport | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 743 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | benched gods | 2.02 | 10 | won | +10 | 734 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 723 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 Ares – Bebop | Bebop | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 714 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 2.02 | 10 | won | +10 | 724 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Metizport | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 714 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | The Last Resort | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 704 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | FUT | 1.98 | 10 | won | +10 | 714 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | Astralis | 2.06 | 10 | lost | -10 | 705 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.17 | 10 | won | +12 | 715 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Raccoons | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 703 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | Permitta | 2.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 693 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | Misa | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 703 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Misa | 2.09 | 10 | won | +11 | 713 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Entropy | Entropy | 2.68 | 10 | won | +17 | 702 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | Leo | 2.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 686 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 3.07 | 10 | lost | -10 | 696 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Misa | 2.06 | 10 | lost | -10 | 706 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | MOUZ NXT | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 716 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.13 | 10 | lost | -10 | 726 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – Fortress | Fortress | 2.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 736 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Entropy | 1.92 | 10 | lost | -10 | 746 |
| 18.08.26 | PCIFIC – Just Players | Just Players | 1.91 | 10 | won | +9 | 756 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 2.05 | 10 | won | +10 | 747 |
| 17.08.26 | LPH – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.23 | 10 | lost | -10 | 736 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | benched gods | 2.03 | 10 | won | +10 | 746 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 736 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | Lavked | 2.70 | 10 | won | +17 | 746 |
| 16.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | GUESS | 1.94 | 10 | lost | -10 | 729 |
| 16.08.26 | ENCE – WBT | ENCE | 2.13 | 10 | lost | -10 | 739 |
| 16.08.26 | The MongolZ – paiN | paiN | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 749 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | ROUNDS | 2.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | 759 |
| 15.08.26 | Spirit – BIG | BIG | 2.07 | 10 | lost | -10 | 769 |
| 15.08.26 | BAKS – BASEMENT BOYS | BAKS | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 779 |
| 15.08.26 | FURIA – 9z | FURIA | 2.04 | 10 | won | +10 | 789 |
| 15.08.26 | Enjoy – UNiTY | UNiTY | 2.29 | 10 | lost | -10 | 778 |
| 15.08.26 | Privateer – Phantom Academy | Privateer | 2.02 | 10 | lost | -10 | 788 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Misa | 2.28 | 10 | won | +13 | 798 |
| 15.08.26 | Honvéd – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.33 | 10 | won | +13 | 786 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – NEW VISION | NEW VISION | 2.46 | 10 | won | +15 | 772 |
| 15.08.26 | Misa – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 2.07 | 10 | lost | -10 | 758 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | METANOIA Wolves | 2.52 | 10 | won | +15 | 768 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – Entropy | Noir Verse | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 752 |
| 14.08.26 | SINQU – Phantom Academy | SINQU | 1.98 | 10 | won | +10 | 743 |
| 14.08.26 | The Last Resort – Honvéd | Honvéd | 2.10 | 10 | won | +11 | 733 |
| 14.08.26 | eternal premium – Privateer | eternal premium | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 722 |
| 14.08.26 | B8 – Vitality | Vitality | 1.92 | 10 | lost | -10 | 712 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Lazer Cats | MOUZ NXT | 2.10 | 10 | won | +11 | 722 |
| 14.08.26 | NEW VISION – Arch | NEW VISION | 2.35 | 10 | won | +14 | 711 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | GUESS | 2.07 | 10 | lost | -10 | 698 |
| 13.08.26 | Honvéd – Bebop | Bebop | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 708 |
| 13.08.26 | Abyssal – Ground Zero | Abyssal | 2.12 | 10 | lost | -10 | 698 |
| 12.08.26 | Lynn Vision – MOUZ | Lynn Vision | 2.31 | 10 | lost | -10 | 708 |
| 12.08.26 | Endless Journey – HAVU | HAVU | 2.60 | 10 | won | +16 | 718 |
| 12.08.26 | Natus Vincere – 3DMAX | 3DMAX | 2.25 | 10 | lost | -10 | 702 |
| 12.08.26 | G2 – M80 | G2 | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 712 |
| 12.08.26 | ROUNDS – Subtop De France | Subtop De France | 2.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 703 |
| 12.08.26 | BIG – Aurora | Aurora | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 713 |
| 11.08.26 | Rooster – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 2.17 | 10 | won | +12 | 723 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.