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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-805u
ROI
-5.9%
win rate
44%
bets
1373
drawdown
85.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-86u
period 6top-up-154u
period 5profit withdrawn+51u
period 4top-up-193u
period 3top-up-175u
period 2top-up-140u
period 1top-up-107u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)137344%-805-5.9%85.6%Selected
1% of bankroll137344%-812-6.4%85.4%Select
Martingale8740%-940-26.7%95.4%Select
2% of bankroll137344%-1618-6.9%166.6%Select
5% of bankroll137344%-3760-8.4%369.9%Select
10% of bankroll137344%-5923-10.6%566.8%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1373, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5710lost-10195
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.4210lost-10205
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.4110won+14215
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0110lost-10201
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2910won+13211
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1110lost-10198
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0410won+10208
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.9910lost-10198
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4510lost-10208
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9610lost-10218
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.9610won+10228
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6110lost-10218
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1210won+21228
11.10.26antidaun – Saint Sinnersantidaun1.9710lost-10207
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4510won+15217
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9710lost-10203
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.9210won+9213
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.9510won+10204
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.3710lost-10194
10.10.26NRG – Unreal NightmareUnreal Nightmare2.4910lost-10204
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.0910lost-10214
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5110lost-10224
10.10.26WBT Academy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners2.1010won+11234
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.7010lost-10223
10.10.26FarmVille – Wanted GoonsWanted Goons2.6310won+16233
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEDETONATE2.0110won+10217
10.10.26ALKA – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.2710won+13207
10.10.26Isurus – ProcyonIsurus2.0810lost-10194
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.2910lost-10204
09.10.26Iberian Soul – Noir VerseNoir Verse1.9310lost-10214
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.3410lost-10224
09.10.26Misa – 666666662.0710won+11234
09.10.26The Huns – Alter EgoThe Huns2.0110lost-10223
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.2410won+12233
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.7010lost-10221
09.10.26mellren – BebopBebop3.0810won+21231
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.0510lost-10210
09.10.26Villainous – Reign AboveVillainous2.2010won+12220
09.10.26LP – Turma do PagodeLP2.2910won+13208
09.10.26Bounty Hunters – ALKAALKA1.9610lost-10195
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.9910won+10205
08.10.26Saint Sinners – mellrenSaint Sinners2.5410won+15195
08.10.26FaZe – SangalFaZe2.5810won+16180
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0710won+11164
08.10.26Azuolas – MisaAzuolas2.4310lost-10153
08.10.26EAC – PUREEAC2.1210lost-10163
08.10.26Lynn Vision – Chinggis WarriorsLynn Vision1.9110won+9173
08.10.26bLight blue – BORING PLAYERSbLight blue1.9410lost-10164
08.10.26THE UNIT – The KnockoutXTHE UNIT1.9510lost-10174
08.10.26ENCE – LFO 10LFO 102.1910lost-10184
08.10.26Azuolas – Noir VerseAzuolas2.5310lost-10194
08.10.26OG – SangalOG2.2410lost-10204
08.10.26Lavked – FortressFortress2.5110lost-10214
08.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ColorNuclear TigeRES2.0210won+10224
08.10.26Villainous – FarmVilleVillainous2.0610lost-10214
08.10.26BESTIA Academy – ALKAALKA1.9010won+9224
08.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd Starsex-Keyd Stars2.0410won+10215
08.10.26Isurus – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.0710lost-10205
07.10.26Sangal – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior2.8110won+18215
07.10.26Lazer Cats – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior2.0710won+11196
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.