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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-5862u
ROI
-9.6%
win rate
44%
bets
1378
drawdown
546.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-898u
period 6top-up-987u
period 5top-up-753u
period 4top-up-798u
period 3top-up-905u
period 2top-up-833u
period 1top-up-688u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)137844%-695-5%70%Select
1% of bankroll137844%-717-5.5%72.2%Select
Martingale8542%-1226-26.8%119.5%Select
2% of bankroll137844%-1459-5.9%144.7%Select
5% of bankroll137844%-3559-7.2%344.8%Select
10% of bankroll137844%-5862-9.6%546.6%Selected
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1378, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26FORZE Reload – LFO 10LFO 102.6411lost-11-4862
14.10.26fnatic – HOTUfnatic2.0310won+11-4851
14.10.26BET-M – FORZE ReloadBET-M2.1311lost-11-4861
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.9813lost-13-4850
14.10.26Lynn Vision – Alter EgoLynn Vision2.0311won+12-4837
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5713lost-13-4849
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.9314lost-14-4836
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.9016lost-16-4822
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0117lost-17-4806
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2915won+20-4789
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1117lost-17-4809
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0416won+16-4791
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.1117lost-17-4808
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4519lost-19-4790
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9621lost-21-4771
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarDETONATE2.1824lost-24-4750
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBORRACHEIROS2.0926lost-26-4726
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1222won+46-4700
11.10.26XI – ASTRALXI2.2019won+23-4746
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4517won+25-4769
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9719lost-19-4794
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.9217won+16-4775
11.10.26Galorys – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.8419lost-19-4791
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.3721lost-21-4771
10.10.26NRG – Unreal NightmareUnreal Nightmare2.4924lost-24-4750
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.0926lost-26-4726
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5129lost-29-4700
10.10.26Lavked – FortressFortress2.4533lost-33-4671
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.7036lost-36-4638
10.10.26regain – VillainousVillainous2.2640lost-40-4602
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEDETONATE2.0136won+37-4562
10.10.26Grêmio – BORRACHEIROSGrêmio1.9841lost-41-4599
10.10.26Isurus – ProcyonIsurus2.0845lost-45-4558
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.2950lost-50-4513
09.10.26Saint Sinners – Just PlayersSaint Sinners2.3556lost-56-4463
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.3462lost-62-4408
09.10.26WBT Academy – SAW YoungstersSAW Youngsters2.4754won+79-4346
09.10.26Vitalem Aerem – Rare AtomVitalem Aerem2.4847won+70-4425
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.2442won+52-4495
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.7046lost-46-4546
09.10.26Azuolas – EnjoyAzuolas2.8939won+74-4500
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.0543lost-43-4574
09.10.26Chicken Coop – DETONATEDETONATE1.9748lost-48-4530
09.10.26Bounty Hunters – ALKAALKA1.9653lost-53-4482
09.10.26Grêmio – YawaraGrêmio2.0559lost-59-4429
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.9954won+54-4369
08.10.26Leo – PrivateerPrivateer3.7860lost-60-4423
08.10.26Just Players – ENCEENCE1.8967lost-67-4363
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0760won+64-4296
08.10.26CYBERSHOKE – NexusNexus1.9655won+53-4361
08.10.26megoshort – Fire Fluxmegoshort2.5661lost-61-4413
08.10.26Alter Ego – KaleidoKaleido2.2055won+66-4352
08.10.26Rare Atom – Just SwingJust Swing2.3748won+66-4418
08.10.26The Last Resort – PrivateerPrivateer2.8141won+74-4483
08.10.26BERG – mellrenBERG3.3245lost-45-4557
08.10.26Azuolas – Noir VerseAzuolas2.5350lost-50-4512
08.10.26G2 Ares – RBLSG2 Ares2.0545won+48-4462
08.10.26Lavked – FortressFortress2.5150lost-50-4509
08.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ColorNuclear TigeRES2.0246won+47-4459
08.10.26OverKnight – Desi BoyzOverKnight1.9751lost-51-4505
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.