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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-524u
ROI
-4.7%
win rate
47%
bets
618
drawdown
68.8%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+22u
period 3top-up-208u
period 2top-up-323u
period 1top-up-15u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Flat (10 units)61847%-243-3.9%37.4%Select
1% of bankroll61847%-253-4.3%36%Select
Martingale21450%-344-5.4%66.1%Select
2% of bankroll61847%-524-4.7%68.8%Selected
5% of bankroll61847%-1379-5.9%157.2%Select
10% of bankroll61847%-2663-8.1%253.3%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 618, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26mellren – Bushido Wildcatsmellren2.4620won+29476
20.08.26Metizport – ColorMetizport1.9220won+18447
20.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – benched godsbenched gods2.0219won+20429
20.08.26ex-Sashi Academy – Noir VerseNoir Verse1.9619won+18409
20.08.26G2 Ares – BebopBebop1.9819lost-19391
19.08.26Permitta – Falcons ForceFalcons Force2.0219won+19411
19.08.26Metizport – Fire FluxMetizport1.9218won+17391
19.08.26The Last Resort – OGThe Last Resort1.9819lost-19374
19.08.26FUT – magicFUT1.9818won+18393
19.08.26G2 – AstralisAstralis2.0619lost-19375
19.08.26Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity2.1718won+22394
19.08.26Black Phoenix – RaccoonsRaccoons1.9518won+17372
19.08.26HYPERSPIRIT – PermittaPermitta2.0118lost-18355
19.08.26Misa – ex-Sashi AcademyMisa1.9819lost-19374
18.08.26Misa – Strael BoraMisa2.0918won+20393
18.08.26Omega – EntropyEntropy2.6818won+30373
18.08.26Leo – ex-RUSTECLeo2.0118lost-18343
18.08.26WBT – Mai TaiMai Tai3.0719lost-19361
18.08.26Color – MisaMisa2.0619lost-19379
18.08.26MOUZ NXT – SPARTAMOUZ NXT1.9819lost-19398
18.08.26Metizport – DONSTUDONSTU2.1320lost-20417
18.08.26EAC – FortressFortress2.6920lost-20437
18.08.26Honvéd – EntropyEntropy1.9220lost-20457
18.08.26PCIFIC – Just PlayersJust Players1.9120won+18478
17.08.26Nexus – G2 AresG2 Ares2.0520won+21459
17.08.26LPH – SAW YoungstersSAW Youngsters2.2320lost-20439
17.08.26benched gods – Phantom Academybenched gods2.0320won+20459
17.08.26ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIAQUINTESSÊNCIA1.9620lost-20439
16.08.26Lavked – INOX DivisionLavked2.7019won+33459
16.08.26Fire Flux – GUESSGUESS1.9420lost-20426
16.08.26ENCE – WBTENCE2.1320lost-20445
16.08.26The MongolZ – paiNpaiN1.9521lost-21466
16.08.26ROUNDS – VexarROUNDS2.2021lost-21486
15.08.26Spirit – BIGBIG2.0722lost-22507
15.08.26BAKS – BASEMENT BOYSBAKS1.8922lost-22529
15.08.26FURIA – 9zFURIA2.0422won+22551
15.08.26Enjoy – UNiTYUNiTY2.2922lost-22529
15.08.26Privateer – Phantom AcademyPrivateer2.0222lost-22551
15.08.26Leo – MisaMisa2.2822won+28573
15.08.26Honvéd – Inner Circle AcademyInner Circle Academy2.3321won+28545
15.08.26Fire Flux – NEW VISIONNEW VISION2.4621won+30517
15.08.26Misa – Mai TaiMai Tai2.0721lost-21487
15.08.26METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITEMETANOIA Wolves2.5220won+31508
15.08.26Noir Verse – EntropyNoir Verse1.9620won+19476
14.08.26SINQU – Phantom AcademySINQU1.9820won+19457
14.08.26The Last Resort – HonvédHonvéd2.1019won+21438
14.08.26eternal premium – Privateereternal premium1.9619won+18417
14.08.26B8 – VitalityVitality1.9219lost-19398
14.08.26MOUZ NXT – Lazer CatsMOUZ NXT2.1019won+21418
14.08.26NEW VISION – ArchNEW VISION2.3518won+25397
14.08.26Fire Flux – GUESSGUESS2.0719lost-19372
13.08.26Honvéd – BebopBebop1.9618won+18391
13.08.26Abyssal – Ground ZeroAbyssal2.1219lost-19373
12.08.26Lynn Vision – MOUZLynn Vision2.3119lost-19392
12.08.26Endless Journey – HAVUHAVU2.6019won+30411
12.08.26Natus Vincere – 3DMAX3DMAX2.2519lost-19382
12.08.26G2 – M80G21.8919won+17400
12.08.26ROUNDS – Subtop De FranceSubtop De France2.0119lost-19384
12.08.26BIG – AuroraAurora1.8919lost-19403
11.08.26Rooster – MindfreakMindfreak2.1719won+22422
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.