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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-1618u
ROI
-6.9%
win rate
44%
bets
1373
drawdown
166.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-183u
period 6top-up-327u
period 5profit withdrawn+46u
period 4top-up-349u
period 3top-up-317u
period 2top-up-286u
period 1top-up-202u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)137344%-805-5.9%85.6%Select
1% of bankroll137344%-812-6.4%85.4%Select
Martingale8740%-940-26.7%95.4%Select
2% of bankroll137344%-1618-6.9%166.6%Selected
5% of bankroll137344%-3760-8.4%369.9%Select
10% of bankroll137344%-5923-10.6%566.8%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1373, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5717lost-17-618
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.4217lost-17-601
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.4117won+23-584
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0117lost-17-608
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2916won+21-591
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1117lost-17-612
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0416won+17-595
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.9917lost-17-612
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4517lost-17-595
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9617lost-17-578
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.9617won+16-561
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6118lost-18-577
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1217won+36-560
11.10.26antidaun – Saint Sinnersantidaun1.9717lost-17-595
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4517won+24-578
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9717lost-17-602
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.9217won+15-585
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.9516won+16-601
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.3717lost-17-616
10.10.26NRG – Unreal NightmareUnreal Nightmare2.4917lost-17-600
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.0917lost-17-583
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5118lost-18-565
10.10.26WBT Academy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners2.1017won+19-547
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.7018lost-18-566
10.10.26FarmVille – Wanted GoonsWanted Goons2.6317won+28-549
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEDETONATE2.0117won+17-577
10.10.26ALKA – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.2716won+21-594
10.10.26Isurus – ProcyonIsurus2.0817lost-17-615
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.2917lost-17-598
09.10.26Iberian Soul – Noir VerseNoir Verse1.9317lost-17-581
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.3418lost-18-563
09.10.26Misa – 666666662.0717won+19-545
09.10.26The Huns – Alter EgoThe Huns2.0118lost-18-564
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.2417won+21-546
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.7018lost-18-568
09.10.26mellren – BebopBebop3.0817won+35-550
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.0517lost-17-585
09.10.26Villainous – Reign AboveVillainous2.2017won+20-568
09.10.26LP – Turma do PagodeLP2.2917won+21-588
09.10.26Bounty Hunters – ALKAALKA1.9617lost-17-610
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.9917won+16-593
08.10.26Saint Sinners – mellrenSaint Sinners2.5416won+25-609
08.10.26FaZe – SangalFaZe2.5816won+25-634
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0715won+16-659
08.10.26Azuolas – MisaAzuolas2.4316lost-16-675
08.10.26EAC – PUREEAC2.1216lost-16-659
08.10.26Lynn Vision – Chinggis WarriorsLynn Vision1.9116won+14-643
08.10.26bLight blue – BORING PLAYERSbLight blue1.9416lost-16-658
08.10.26THE UNIT – The KnockoutXTHE UNIT1.9516lost-16-642
08.10.26ENCE – LFO 10LFO 102.1917lost-17-626
08.10.26Azuolas – Noir VerseAzuolas2.5317lost-17-609
08.10.26OG – SangalOG2.2417lost-17-592
08.10.26Lavked – FortressFortress2.5118lost-18-575
08.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ColorNuclear TigeRES2.0217won+18-557
08.10.26Villainous – FarmVilleVillainous2.0618lost-18-575
08.10.26BESTIA Academy – ALKAALKA1.9017won+16-557
08.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd Starsex-Keyd Stars2.0417won+18-573
08.10.26Isurus – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.0717lost-17-591
07.10.26Sangal – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior2.8117won+30-573
07.10.26Lazer Cats – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior2.0716won+17-603
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.